Approving a pipeline project is easy. Making it happen will be difficult and painful

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Imagine this scenario: B.C. wants to build a pipeline that needs to cross Alberta to reach its destination. Despite Alberta’s strenuous objections, B.C. negotiates a deal with the federal government to forge ahead with the plan.

What would Alberta do?

1. Take B.C. and Ottawa to court and threaten to secede;
2. Warn B.C. it will impose an onerous transit fee on oil that crosses its land and threaten to secede;
3. Get former Alberta premier Jason Kenney to go on the news shows to talk about what an intellectual dwarf B.C. Premier David Eby is and threaten to secede;
4. All of the above.

My guess it would be some combination of all the options presented. And yes, I’ll concede the picture I’ve painted is a bit fantastical, but it’s not far off from what is happening with Alberta’s bid to get a pipeline built to the northwest coast of B.C. Planning is unfolding over the fierce objections of the B.C. government and coastal First Nations.

Alberta pushes back on B.C.’s opposition to proposed pipeline

It needs to be noted here that Premier Danielle Smith has pretty much spent her entire time in office dreaming up ways for Alberta to assert sovereignty over its affairs. Truly, her message has been: we don’t want Ottawa, we don’t need Ottawa, Ottawa is evil and we can do everything it does better ourselves. That’s why she organized a travelling grievance road show this summer to test market some of her (not so new) independence-adjacent ideas such as an Alberta police force (instead of the RCMP), an Alberta pension plan, an Alberta tax collection agency, and more.

But when it comes to Mr. Eby objecting to the pipeline she wants to build, suddenly it’s all for one and one for all.

“This is what Team Canada looks like: That when you’ve got provinces that don’t have access to a shoreline, we co-operate to make sure that we can get our product to market,” Ms. Smith said last week.

“A lot of people wrap themselves in the flag, talking about how much they support Canada and want to work together. And then, when it comes right down to it, not everybody lives up to that commitment.”

Opinion: As pipeline politics begin anew, Ottawa must fast-track the courts

And then there are people who wrap themselves in their provincial flag first until they need something from the federal government, and then they grab the first Canadian flag they can find.

In principle, I’m not opposed to this pipeline. Given the precarious economic circumstances in which this country finds itself, thanks to the actions of U.S. President Donald Trump, we need to find new markets for our commodities, including oil. I also believe oil tankers can safely set sail out of the port of Prince Rupert down the Hecate Strait and out to the wider Pacific Ocean en route to Asia. Oil moves in rougher seas around the world every day. There are precautions that could be taken – extra tugboats to guide a tanker’s safe passage to sea – that could radically reduce the chances of anything catastrophic happening.

And if the pipeline had to be built over the objections of the B.C. government, all I would say is: it wouldn’t be the first time. The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion was shoved down B.C.’s throat over the objections of its NDP government and some First Nations. So, I suppose it could happen again.

But I guess my biggest question is: where is all the money coming from for this project? Ottawa can’t fast-track a Northern Gateway redux without Alberta making significant inroads in reducing its greenhouse-gas emissions. That means getting a carbon sequestration program up and running. That could cost north of $16-billion. Easily.

Analysis: Pipeline mania is distracting from what the talks between Ottawa and Alberta could actually achieve

And then who is paying for the pipeline itself? Is there really a proponent lurking out there willing to pay $35- or $40-billion for a pipeline, given the uncertain state of the energy future? In its latest world outlook, the International Energy Agency predicts that global fossil fuel demand will likely peak around 2030, while clean energy supply continues to accelerate.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is somewhat more bullish, predicting that demand for oil will still be healthy in 2050 and perhaps beyond. So, it’s a bet to be sure. An expensive and risky one.

Nonetheless, here we are, with a memorandum of understanding between Alberta and Ottawa on a new pipeline expected to be revealed soon – maybe this week. That will be easiest part of the entire exercise. All the smiles from that day will quickly fade as we await the grim, unrelenting work that lies ahead.

This saga is far from over. There are many mountains to climb, rivers to cross.