Among the many grievances Alberta Premier Danielle Smith holds against the rest of Canada – or at least the so-called liberal elites who run it – few stand out more vividly than the inability to get pipelines built.
Her bitterness has been revived in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of a 25-per-cent tariff on all imports from Canada – including oil and gas. Ms. Smith broke ranks with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and her fellow premiers in refusing to sign a joint declaration that put everything on the table in terms of a retaliatory response – including an export ban or tariff on the country’s oil-and-gas sales to the U.S.
The non-binding proclamation was primarily a bargaining ploy to let the U.S. know that we would meet fire with fire. Ms. Smith has repeatedly said that a retaliatory response is not in Canada’s best interests and emphasized she would fight any attempt to tax or ban Alberta oil and gas as part of an overarching response to any Trump tariffs.
Needless to say, her Alberta-first approach has not gone over well with her provincial colleagues, or the Prime Minister.
Ms. Smith has been clear that one way Canada could meet the challenge Mr. Trump has put before it is by building more pipelines. That includes reviving interest in the proposed Energy East pipeline, which was scuttled in 2017 by TransCanada for several reasons, including changing economics and environmental opposition in Quebec. It would have carried oil from Alberta and Saskatchewan to be refined or exported from facilities in New Brunswick and Quebec.
Ms. Smith has also resurrected the proposal for the rejected Northern Gateway pipeline, which would have moved oil from Edmonton across B.C. to the port city of Kitimat for export. That project was halted in 2016 when the Federal Court of Appeal ruled that proponents failed to adequately consult with First Nations on the pipeline’s proposed route.
One of those most vociferously opposed to the pipeline was the president of the Union of British Columbian Indian Chiefs, Grand Chief Stewart Phillip. In recent days, Mr. Phillip said that when he opposed the project it was a “different time.” At a news conference, he said: “I would suggest that if we don’t build that kind of infrastructure, [Mr.] Trump will ….” He was now onside.
This appeared to be a significant development. It seemed unlikely Mr. Phillip would have made such a bold statement unless he knew the First Nations communities along the pipeline route were with him. You could almost feel the excitement in Alberta. Was this really happening or too good to be true?
Seems like it was the latter.
On Wednesday, the Grand Chief put out an extraordinary statement. In it, he said, “I do not support resuscitating dead projects such as the failed Northern Gateway pipeline, which would have been an absolute disaster for our lands and waters.” He apologized for any confusion he may have caused.
You could hear the air being sucked out of certain political offices in Edmonton.
What does this mean? It means any attempt by Ms. Smith and, perhaps a future prime minister Pierre Poilievre, to restart Northern Gateway is going to be difficult, if not impossible. If this was the U.S., of course, and Mr. Trump was running the show, you wouldn’t worry about what some First Nations people were saying. You would just start digging.
But this is not the U.S., and under our laws First Nations consultation is required if you’re going to use/annex/rent their lands for the purposes of a pipeline. I suppose you could just override federal laws and attempt to build it anyway, but you would have a loud, ugly, likely violent fight on your hands.
It wouldn’t be worth it.
So, Ms. Smith’s insistence to her fellow premiers that Northern Gateway and Energy East be started “immediately” seems a little far-fetched at the moment.
But who knows what will happen if Mr. Poilievre gets into power. Maybe he visits northern B.C. and makes a plea to the First Nations communities on behalf of Ms. Smith’s desire to sell more of her oil overseas. (Hopefully, he’s not chomping down on an apple while making his pitch.)
Will another pipeline ever get built in Canada? Certainly, not any time soon. As the new Trans Mountain pipeline that finally opened last year showed, they take years to get done. There would be difficult negotiations to carry out on multiple levels, not just with First Nations. Energy East would be fraught with similar challenges.
Ms. Smith’s desire to have these projects start pronto is unrealistic. When it comes to dealing with Mr. Trump’s tariff threats, all we have is the here and now. We have to accept that.