Can Pierre Poilievre outrun the ‘yesterday’s man’ label?

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If you are wondering what Pierre Poilievre has been up to while Prime Minister Mark Carney hosted the G7 Summit in Alberta, announced a new Canada-European Union security-and-defence partnership in Brussels, and signed on to a NATO pledge to massively boost military spending at The Hague, hogging the spotlight has definitely not been it.

The Conservative Leader has been all but invisible as Mr. Carney moves with lightning speed to steer “the biggest transformation of our economy since the Second World War,” as he likes to call it. That is likely by choice. There is not much Mr. Poilievre could say or do right now to distract attention from the new Prime Minister as he unleashes sweeping reforms to kickstart major infrastructure projects, negotiate a new economic and security pact with U.S. President Donald Trump and overhaul the public service.

This is Mr. Carney’s moment. At 52 per cent, according to an Abacus poll released this week, the government’s approval rating is more than twice the 21-per-cent low it hit during Justin Trudeau’s final days in office. “The current approval rating is still historically strong and suggests this post-election ‘honeymoon period’ is far from over,” Abacus said. Just 25 per cent of Canadians disapprove of the job Mr. Carney is doing, though they are not exactly vocal about it.

Similarly, the weekly Nanos tracking poll has 52.1 per cent of Canadians naming Mr. Carney as their preferred prime minister, compared to 23.2 per cent for Mr. Poilievre. Nanos also shows Tory support plunging to just 31 per cent, down more than 10 percentage points since the April 28 federal election, and fully 14 points behind the Carney Liberals.

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Abacus pegs the gap at just three points, so it is not entirely clear where current Tory support lies. The two pollsters use different methodologies, with Nanos relying on cell and landline phone interviews, while Abacus conducts its surveys using an online panel. Still, their findings converge where it matters. Both show that the momentum is with Mr. Carney.

That raises serious questions about Mr. Poilievre’s future as Tory Leader. A year ago, as a deeply unpopular Mr. Trudeau clung desperately to power, it looked like Mr. Poilievre would coast to victory in the next election. The Tory Leader made the mistake of believing it. He had no Plan B in case the Liberals decided to get real and ditch their worn-out leader.

This brings to mind the old Joe Biden adage: “Don’t compare me to the almighty. Compare me to the alternative.” As long as Canadians were comparing Mr. Poilievre to Mr. Trudeau, the Conservative Leader came out on top. But Mr. Carney’s accession to the Liberal leadership changed everything.

So did Mr. Trump’s return to the White House, and the tariff war he unleashed on America’s largest trading partner. Suddenly, the wedge issues on which Mr. Poilievre had staked his prime-ministerial pretensions lost salience. Voters yearned for substance over slogans. Mr. Carney appeared to offer it, while Mr. Poilievre leaned into his populist base.

It is true Mr. Carney did not win in a landslide on April 28. But he inalterably changed the political dynamics. He showed that mobilizing an activist base on social media through messaging that polarizes political debate is not the only way to win elections in Canada, after all. Mr. Poilievre has yet to prove that he can adapt to the Carney world.

Assuming he returns to the House of Commons in September – he must first win a seat in an Alberta by-election expected to be held before then – Mr. Poilievre will need to adopt a new tone and style for Canadians to again see him as a potential future prime minister.

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Unfortunately, he will also be campaigning to keep his current job. He faces a leadership review in January and that could lead him to pander even more shamelessly to the party base in the interim. Most centrist voters who might have supported Mr. Poilievre if Mr. Trudeau had stayed on have fled the Tory ship for Mr. Carney’s Liberals. They likely won’t be the ones voting in the leadership review.

The Conservative Party needs a serious leader for serious times. That person does not need to have a résumé that exactly matches Mr. Carney’s – that would be impossible. But she or he should possess the experience and demonstrate the temperament needed to reassure Canadians in unsettling times.

For now, Mr. Carney is riding high – and essentially unchecked. A rigorous and competent official opposition in Parliament can serve as a rampart against Liberal over-reach. It is not clear that the Pierre Poilievre Canadians have come to know is up to the job. The dreaded ‘yesterday’s man’ label is catching up to him. He must now show he knows how to outrun it.