Autonomous sea drones, such as these AJX-002s seen during a Chinese military parade, could make the River-class destroyers that Canada has on order irrelevant when they hit the water.Maxim Shemetov/Reuters
Michael Byers co-directs the Outer Space Institute.
Two small motorboats collided off the west coast of Vancouver Island this past summer, causing a large explosion. The crash was just a demonstration, conducted by the Royal Canadian Navy with equipment from a British defence contractor. But the technology on display has serious implications for Canada’s procurement of 15 large warships known as River-class destroyers.
The small motorboats used in the demo, called hammerheads, are designed for hunting and eliminating large naval vessels. Instead of having a crew, they are remotely controlled over a satellite link.
The hammerheads are based on a Ukrainian innovation. When Russia closed the Black Sea to commercial shipping in 2022, the consequences for Ukraine’s grain exports, and therefore its economy, were severe.
The Ukrainians responded by constructing remote-controlled motorboats, each equipped with a type of camera originally designed for airborne drones, a small satellite ground terminal and hundreds of kilograms of high-impact explosives. The resulting weapon exemplified the term “asymmetrical warfare,” which generally describes the tactics of a military force that is considered inferior to its opponent in size and technical capability. After losing some of its largest, most expensive warships to Ukrainian strategies, the Russian Black Sea Fleet retreated to port.
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The lethality of sea drones can further be increased by deploying them in “swarms,” overwhelming any attempt to ward them off with missiles and guns.
Russia has sought to disrupt the drones by jamming satellite signals with electronic interference. They’re getting better at this, but the Ukrainians continue to innovate. Soon, it will be possible to equip the sea drones with artificial intelligence, eliminating the need for a satellite link.
Recognizing this, the U.S. government has decided that it wants to lead the way. Earlier this year, Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” included almost US$5-billion for the development and acquisition of autonomous sea drones.
And while some technological challenges will need to be overcome, small “kamikaze” submarines – essentially, torpedoes driven by artificial intelligence and capable of long-duration missions – will almost certainly follow.
Early in September, China revealed a new submarine drone – the 20 metre-long AJX-002 – at a military parade in Beijing. Mostly powered by batteries, these submarine drones will likely be extremely quiet and almost impossible to detect. Lacking a crew, they will also be cheap and easy to build, enabling their deployment in large numbers.
These technologies will likely proliferate, from China and Russia to North Korea, Iran and then perhaps to the Houthis.
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It’s this imminent marriage of artificial intelligence and sea drones that presents a strong case for limiting the procurement of 15 River-class destroyers to just six or eight vessels.
Building large surface warships into the 2030s and 40s would be like investing in cavalry after the invention of the tank.
Each River-class destroyer costs a cool $7-billion, according to the contract for the first three ships signed by the Canadian government in March as one of the last acts under Justin Trudeau’s leadership.
On the positive side, the advent of autonomous sea drones is not just a threat but also an opportunity. By embracing these technologies, the Royal Canadian Navy could protect our coasts and support our allies for decades to come.
The American, British and Australian navies are already moving toward “mixed fleets” that will include fewer high-cost platforms and many smaller, less expensive ships capable of operating autonomously. Acting on the concept of “resilience through redundancy,” the plan is to increase the overall survivability of a fleet by presenting an enemy with literally thousands of targets.
The Royal Canadian Navy has not changed its fleet structure since the end of the Cold War. Its large warships, the Halifax-class frigates, enable it to participate in naval task forces centred on U.S. aircraft carriers. That made sense in an age when control of the air meant control of the sea, and when a close Canada-U.S. partnership was central to our defence policy. But like everything else, this is changing.
Moving to a mixed fleet would require the Royal Canadian Navy to adapt new strategies, doctrines, training programs and internal systems.
It all makes for a very big ask, but it’s an ask that Prime Minister Mark Carney should make.
Canada needs a navy that can adapt, survive and fight in the age of artificial intelligence.