The flag of Palestine flies outside the Palestine Mission to the U.K. mark the country's recognition of a Palestinian State on Monday in London, England.Leon Neal/Getty Images
Thomas Juneau is a professor at the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs and an associate fellow with Chatham House.
On Sunday, Canada announced, along with Britain, Australia, and other allies, that it is recognizing Palestinian statehood. For supporters of the decision, this is a major policy shift that rights a historical wrong. According to critics, it is a reward for Hamas, the terrorist group that perpetrated the atrocities of Oct. 7, 2023 against Israel.
The announcement is neither. It is not a reward for Hamas; this is mostly a bad faith argument by those who oppose the creation of a Palestinian state. It also does not right a historical wrong; much remains to be done before a Palestinian state is born. Rather, it is a small but necessary step that could help build a path towards peace.
Recognition will have no impact on the conflict in the short-term. Hamas will remain entrenched in Gaza, and Palestinians will not achieve self-determination because of mere declarations. This does not, however, make the decision irrelevant or purely theatrical.
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The two-state solution remains the only plausible path towards peace and dignity for both Palestinians and Israelis. It is, however, on life-support. To revive it, one of the necessary though far from sufficient conditions is the strengthening of the Palestinian Authority, which partially rules in the West Bank. The Palestinian Authority is weak, fragmented, and corrupt, but there is simply no viable alternative as a peace partner for Israel.
Those who support peace should therefore agree on the objective of reinforcing the Palestinian Authority. Canada and its allies have explicitly stated that recognition excludes a role for Hamas, and several have laid out conditions, including much needed democratic and other reforms, before they take further steps in normalizing relations.
Recognition should be seen from this perspective: it can help boost the Palestinian Authority relative to its rival Hamas. But that is why recognizing Palestinian statehood is only meaningful if it is one step as part of a broader push to launch a renewed peace process. No one has illusions that this will come easily. But in the absence of a stronger Palestinian Authority, it will not happen. This is why supporters of indefinite Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories oppose Sunday’s announcement.
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Both critics and supporters of the announcement exaggerate how much of a shift it represents. For critics on the conservative and pro-Israel side, this change is unwelcome; for critics on the left and the pro-Palestinian side, it is too little and too late. Some enthusiastic supporters, for their part, have framed the decision as historic.
In practice, there has been more continuity than change in Canada’s approach towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; rather, it is the situation on the ground that has evolved. Its policy remains the same: Ottawa supports the two-state solution, has close ties to Israel, has positive but lukewarm ties to the Palestinian Authority (which it wants to see reformed), and opposes Hamas (which it rightly lists as a terrorist entity). None of these pillars has changed.
There are, to be sure, risks for Canada. There is a strong possibility that there will be no peace process, and the announcement will come to nothing. In this scenario, the catastrophe will continue for the Palestinian people and, in the absence of a viable Palestinian state, Israel’s survival as a Jewish democracy will be under growing strain. Critics also argue that recognition emboldens the Israeli far right, which openly calls for annexing the West Bank and the mass expulsion of Gazans. This, however, is already happening; in fact, it only highlights the urgency of renewing the peace process.
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Perhaps the greatest risk is that recognition will anger the Trump administration at a time of great uncertainty and vulnerability for Canada relative to its unilateralist and aggressive southern neighbour. As with foreign policy in general, the solution is one of calibration, not black or white answers. But at a minimum, it bears keeping in mind that relations with the United States are far more important for Canada.
Overall, recognizing Palestinian statehood is the correct decision. It is the right thing to do morally, as it is aligned with Canada’s traditional support for security and dignity for both peoples. More importantly, it is strategically sound: those who oppose peace are driving straight into a wall – fast – with tragic implications for the region and beyond. Canada and like-minded allies and partners, including several Arab states, have individually little influence on the conflict. But by working together, this might be their last chance to help avoid further catastrophe.