Prime Minister Mark Carney walks out of a military truck at Fort York Armoury, in Toronto, June 9.Arlyn McAdorey/Reuters
Kevin Lynch was the clerk of the Privy Council and the deputy minister of Finance. Jim Mitchell is an adjunct professor at Carleton University and a former senior executive in the Privy Council Office. They are the authors of the forthcoming book A New Blueprint for Government: Reshaping Power, the PMO, and the Public Service.
“Events, dear boy, events.” This famous response by Harold MacMillan to a question about the greatest challenge he faced as Britain’s prime minister must surely resonate for Mark Carney today. The Canadian Prime Minister has had to navigate through unforeseen events ranging from U.S. President Donald Trump’s unilateral remaking of the global trade system, the war in Ukraine, the dire situation in Gaza, Israeli and American strikes into Iran, and China’s provocative global stance.
These events, particularly around defence and tariffs, will force hard choices on the government – and on Canadians.
On the defence front, the Carney government’s first step was to announce that it will finally meet Canada’s NATO defence spending promise of 2 per cent of GDP this year, and then dramatically expand spending to 5 per cent by 2035 – quadrupling Canada’s annual defence and related expenditures over the next decade.
But the announcement was likely the easiest part. Canada still needs to develop a national security and defence strategy to respond to unforeseen events, in a world where the American security blanket is no longer assured and China increasingly rivals the U.S. in economic and military might. Lists of new equipment is not a strategy.
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Implementing such a strategy starts with developing a clear-eyed view of the world, particularly of the U.S. during and after Mr. Trump, the likely trajectories for Russia and China, India as an emerging superpower, and the European Union’s struggles to get its collective act together. It also means understanding Canada’s strengths and weaknesses as an economy, and how we can realistically increase trade diversification to wean ourselves from excessive dependence on the American market.
A strategy must also clearly identify our national interests and our desired place in the world, and it must be communicated clearly to Canadians. Knowing what we are trying to achieve is essential to Canadians understanding what we need to do to protect and advance our interests, and to decide what trade-offs we are willing to make. Sober realism about the world and ourselves is an absolute necessity.
Clarity about strategy and national interests should drive decisions on where to spend the new defence dollars. But here again it is not a simple matter. We face complex equipment and technology choices amid radical innovations in warfare, which often require very long lead times. To be agile and effective in acquiring the new kit we need, we must completely replace the current procurement system; in its present form, it imperils the whole enterprise.
Attitudes will matter greatly for success. The Canadian public has to be supportive of these new strategic directions, as massive increases in defence spending will mean less spending on other programs and services, higher deficits and debt, and they will likely result in future tax increases. Many difficult federal budgets lie ahead. This will require regular public communication from the government as to why this new defence spending is a continuing imperative for us all.
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There is also the matter of changing the attitudes within the defence establishment, including problems with its workplace culture. A long overdue pay raise will help, but to expand recruitment and retain the needed skills and commitment – a prerequisite for an effective modern military – we need soldiers who are proud to be soldiers, and we need Canadians to be proud of their military.
With long-term funding established, Canada’s military leadership will also need to rethink how it engages with Canadian industry, including our innovative technology companies. The military and Canadian business should embrace a new government defence industrial policy that catalyzes the development and purchase of Canadian defence-related, dual-use technologies and equipment. Canada has world-class capacities in areas such as marine sensing, satellite surveillance, communications and AI, and our technology strengths can contribute to better military capability and a stronger economy.
The new defence agenda is not just about spending more, but rather about changing how Canadians view security and defence. Do we realistically think we can take our security for granted in today’s world? Or do we recognize that sovereignty in a global environment of malevolent actors, real threats and an unreliable United States requires the capacity to defend ourselves, rather than depending on others?
The Carney government has made the pivotal decision to reinvest in defence. More difficult choices still await if this massive shift in priorities is to be implemented effectively. Mr. Trump’s bullying may have initiated this project, but Canadians deserve a capable military that can do the security job we require in the 21st century. It’s time to get serious about national defence and do it right. Events demand it.