Danielle Smith is not a separatist. She’s an opportunist who got in over her head

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I take Alberta Premier Danielle Smith at her word that she supports a “sovereign Alberta within a united Canada,” which is the refrain she hauls out every time she is asked for her personal opinion on Alberta independence.

While Alberta’s NDP is busy charging that the Premier and her entire caucus “are separatists. Period,” Ms. Smith’s long tenure as a public figure in the province provides little evidence for the notion that she genuinely wants to see Alberta leave Canada.

The Premier is not ignorant to the enormous financial, logistical and political challenges that would come from a successful secession vote. But she also is not ignorant – or was not ignorant, during her campaign for the leadership of the United Conservative Party (UCP) and early days as Premier – to the enormous energy, organizational power, and financial resources that could be harnessed by stoking the fires of Western alienation.

So she did just that. First, by campaigning on (and later passing) the Sovereignty Act, which would allow her government to push back against federal laws it deems “harmful” to Alberta’s interests, and then, by changing the rules on citizen-initiated referenda, making it easier for separatists to put the question of Alberta independence to a vote. It was supposed to be rather straightforward: Ms. Smith would throw the separatists a bone or two in exchange for their support, but keep herself mostly out of the fray while reiterating her support for a united Canada.

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But the Premier is now in a critical bind thanks to the decision by an Alberta judge that struck down the petition to get the separation question on the referendum ballot. Ms. Smith has said her government will appeal the decision, which concluded that “the Crown failed to meet its duty to consult” with Indigenous groups, but she is now facing mounting pressure to put the independence question on the ballot herself.

Ms. Smith is trapped: If she bypasses the petition and directly puts the question to a referendum, First Nations leaders have said they would consider it an attack on their people. Even if she uses the federalist Forever Canadian petition to call a referendum, it would profoundly undermine her position as a federalist, which would have knock-on effects on investment in Alberta (which is already suffering under the prospect of a separation referendum) and relations with Ottawa over pipeline development and other industry initiatives.

If she doesn’t do it, however, she will face the wrath of the movement’s leaders, who have already begun to sour on Ms. Smith for her friendly photo-ops and announcements alongside Prime Minister Mark Carney.

On Sunday, Jeffrey Rath, one of the leaders of the independence movement, posted on X that Ms. Smith “had no mandate from her membership to sign the Carbon Tax MOU with Mark Carney,” in reference to the new energy accord announced Friday. “Danielle Smith no longer enjoys the confidence of the members of the UCP.” Mr. Rath doesn’t speak for the UCP membership, obviously, but he does speak for a certain segment of it: a segment that now expects Ms. Smith to carry the torch from where its citizen-led initiative has stalled.

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Nothing will quell that expectation, though the Premier appears to think otherwise. Following the announcement of the energy deal with Ottawa Friday, Ms. Smith suggested that these sorts of pacts “will help a lot towards a group of folks who are disaffected because of economic issues.”

That might be true for the average disaffected Albertan, who has long watched the rest of Canada enjoy the fruits of Alberta’s labour while disparaging its industry, but it won’t matter a lick for Alberta independence evangelists, for whom the goal is not a new pipeline, or a lower carbon tax, or greater appreciation from Ottawa. The goal is Alberta’s sovereignty. The Premier shaking hands with the Prime Minister doesn’t quell their angst; it fuels it.

Ms. Smith didn’t create the separatist monster, but she fed it and nurtured it – and at this point, she has lost control of it. She now has to deal with a caucus staffer sitting in a virtual meeting hosted by a separatist group that allegedly improperly obtained and published voter information.

She now has to try to maintain the support of the separatist wing of her party, without forfeiting the inroads she’s made with Ottawa. She has to navigate her way through 300,000 declared separatists, 400,000 declared federalists, Indigenous groups that have issued stark warnings about a government-invoked independence referendum, and millions of other Albertans who land on various points on the separatism spectrum – all for the high of that early separatist support. The problem with nurturing a monster, however, is that sometimes, it turns around and swallows you whole.