Prime Minister Mark Carney announces five major projects as part of his plan for Canada to navigate changing trade relationships in Edmonton on Sept. 11.AMBER BRACKEN/The Canadian Press
Nik Nanos is the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, research adjunct professor at the Norman Paterson School for International Affairs at Carleton University, and the official pollster for The Globe and Mail and CTV News.
The mood of Canadians is dour.
Our trade relations with the United States are strained, consumer confidence is flat and our economic future feels uncertain. Politicians of all stripes should beware.
Next week, the House of Commons will not return to a chorus of applause but to the cold hard stares of Canadians who want action. Demand action. Action on trade, action on jobs, action on making Canada more resilient.
The political climate reflects the shift to issues of personal and national survival. Issues like the cost of living, the economy and managing U.S. President Donald Trump and our trade relationship with our southern neighbour dominate the mindset of Canadians. Concerns about health care and the environment have taken a back seat to worry about buying groceries and paying for shelter.
Tracking economic sentiment shows Canadians are tepid and tentative. The latest Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence tracking has consumer confidence near neutral, while, long term, the outlook on the future strength of the Canadian economy remains negative. People reporting on their personal finances compared to a year ago remain net negative, while job security is currently steady.
The Liberal victory in the last election was largely propelled by a feeling among Canadians that Mark Carney was the best choice to deal with Mr. Trump, navigate uncertainty and set a stronger economic foundation.
Opinion: Mark Carney is running the economy like a conservative. And that’s okay
The ballot and leadership numbers look strong for the red team, but the Liberals should not get too comfortable. The latest Nanos ballot tracking has the Liberals in the low 40s – about where they were in the election – with the Conservatives trailing in the double digits. The gap between Liberal Leader Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is quite striking, with Mr. Poilievre trailing on the question of who people would prefer as prime minister by about 20 percentage points.
The Liberals are airbrushing a number of the signature Trudeau-era policies. The carbon tax is gone. The new government embraces renewable and conventional energy projects. The mandate for electric vehicle adoption is paused. These are the exact same actions people would have expected from a Poilievre government. But it’s Mark Carney’s “new” Liberal Party that has brought these changes forward.
It is likely no consolation for the Conservatives that the new Liberal Party has taken a page out of the old Liberal playbook. Steal the best ideas from your opponents and take on the mantle of newness and change.
Mr. Carney has eaten Mr. Poilievre’s political lunch, leaving the Conservative leader with thin policy gruel to differentiate himself from the Liberals. We have a new Liberal government with a new leader quickly moving to the political centre. It was less than a year ago that a clearly left-leaning Liberal Party was in power, and sagging in the polls.
The Carney Liberals have some political license, but the risks of not delivering are significant. A postelection survey this past June for CTV News suggested that Mr. Carney has until the end of 2025 to deliver. Thirty-eight per cent of Canadians said they wanted to see concrete results before the end of the year and another 17 per cent wanted results in the summer of 2025. The question is how much patience Canadians have if we hit 2026 and there is little action in terms of trade, jobs, national infrastructure projects or freer trade between provinces.
The Liberals should not get too comfy with their polling advantage. One hallmark of the Trudeau-led Liberals was saying things that were popular, but having difficulty delivering. Environmental targets slid, cheap daycare was not the promised panacea for working families and housing did not become more affordable. The fall budget, by all expectations, will be a big-spending budget investing in infrastructure but will also trim the size of the federal government. It is not yet known where the final federal budget deficit may land but it may very well put Mr. Carney in the club of very big spenders. Compound this with the difficulty to do economic forecasting because of the uncertain trade environment and you compound the Prime Minister’s political risk.
Carney announces five major projects to be reviewed for fast-tracking
In effect we are back to the wartime-style government we saw during the pandemic. Action was bold, and big money pushed out the door to help people and businesses. Today the war is not on COVID but on the trade uncertainty brought on by President Trump. We see similar bold declarations and promises to spend to help Canada weather the trade storm.
The second Liberal risk relates to the shift to the centre. The Liberal win was largely predicated on the personal popularity of Mr. Carney and his appeal to small-c conservative voters while mobilizing progressives who feared Mr. Poilievre. If the shift to the centre and the embrace of conservative policies is viewed as an abandonment of progressive values, the Liberals create ideological space for the New Democrats.
The Conservatives desperately needed a resurgent New Democratic Party to split the vote in the last election. The fact that a Poilievre win was not achieved despite more than four in 10 Canadians voting Conservative speaks to their need for a vote split. The last successful Conservative prime minister, Stephen Harper, won three elections thanks to progressive vote-splitting.
The Conservatives should view the NDP as allies and their best political friend. Letting the NDP languish in the House adrift without party status helps the Liberals. The Conservatives need a revitalized NDP, with a new leader that embraces the progressive policies that the Carney Liberals have jettisoned.
For the Conservatives’ fortunes to improve, Mr. Poilievre needs to better connect with voters, the Liberals need to stumble and the NDP needs to be on the upswing. Winning the by-election and returning to the House of Commons are positive steps for Mr. Poilievre. He also needs a strong mandate coming out of his January leadership review and a renewed vision for why voters should cast their ballot with the Conservatives.
Connect the dour economic mood with turbulence in the Canada-U.S. relationship and you get a situation driven by a compulsion for less talk and more action. The Liberal Party’s shift to the centre creates risks and opportunities for all federal parties. Today’s political advantage is fleeting because of the velocity of change; the upcoming sitting of the House of Commons will be the crucible which will make or break political fortunes.