Members of the Canadian Armed Forces march during a Remembrance Day ceremony in Montreal on Nov. 11, 2025. A recent poll shows Canadians’ historic self-image as peacekeepers is clashing with the reality of a changing, more dangerous world.Christopher Katsarov/The Canadian Press
Nik Nanos is the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, an executive fellow at the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary, and the official pollster for The Globe and Mail and CTV News.
Canada is witnessing a once-in-a-generation shift in opinion on matters of national defence. In the absence of a traditional war, a wartime mentality is emerging: Canadians have an appetite for more defence spending as they see significant global threats.
A study commissioned by the University of Calgary and completed by Nanos Research in late 2025 points to a series of historic shifts that will influence both Canada’s defence posture and strategy. U.S. President Donald Trump’s musings about Canada becoming the 51st state and strained trade discussion have shaken Canadians.
Just as many Canadians agree that the best way for Canada to be a world leader in foreign affairs is to build international consensus (66 per cent agree with this statement) as believe that Canada needs a strong military to be effective in international relations (65 per cent agree with this statement).
When asked how Canada can best advance its place in the world, trade topped the list (91 per cent of respondents felt it was important), followed by diplomacy (83 per cent), national defence (71 per cent), environment (63 per cent), foreign aid (51 per cent) and immigration (41 per cent). Since the benchmark study was conducted in 2020, the importance of trade and defence are up nine and 17 points respectively, while environment and immigration have decreased in importance 16 and 19 points respectively.
Right now public sentiment suggests that Canada’s strategy should be driven by trade and defence, and enabled by diplomacy.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, on the new relationship between great and middle powers, points to a pivot. Only time will tell whether this is a rupture or a transition.
The short-term polling suggests the former. The belief that Canada faces international threats has surged from 41 per cent in 2020 to 58 per cent in 2025.
When it comes to specific threats, foreign interference and disinformation was cited by more than eight in 10 Canadians (82 per cent), followed by the U.S. (71 per cent), Russia (61 per cent), climate change (60 per cent) and China (56 per cent).
When it comes to defence, 30 per cent of Canadians still see their country’s role as that of a peacekeeper and mediator, and 65 per cent say Canada needs a strong military for effective international relations. This speaks to the collision of our historic self-image as peacekeepers with the reality of a changing, more dangerous world.
A majority of Canadians (57 per cent) say that in the event of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) military conflict with Russia, Canada should support NATO militarily. In contrast, a mere 13 per cent of Canadians would support the U.S. militarily in a conflict with China while 29 per cent say they would oppose the conflict and urge diplomatic solutions.
In a world of changing threat perceptions, the appetite for defence spending has increased from 41 per cent in 2020 to 62 per cent. But even with the increased appetite for defence spending, views on the Canadian Armed Forces remain mixed. When asked about how much confidence Canadians have in the ability of CAF leaders to shape policies that benefit Canada, 38 per cent (and only 31 per cent of Canadians under the age of 35) say they have confidence, down from 43 per cent in 2020. This ranks below academia (44 per cent of Canadians have confidence) and intelligence agencies (43 per cent), but above the defence industry (27 per cent), politicians (24 per cent) and the media (22 per cent).
When asked an open-ended question where they could say anything in terms of what comes to mind when they think of the Canadian Armed Forces, the lack of resources tops the list, with that response tripling over the past five years from 6 to 21 per cent. References to the CAF being weak or ineffective is up by a multiple of five, from three to 16 per cent, while peacekeeping is down from 21 to 11 per cent. Canadians also associated the CAF with small size (7 per cent), being well-trained (6 per cent), having old or outdated equipment (5 per cent), protection or providing security (5 per cent), bravery (3 per cent), and patriotism (3 per cent). Of note, one in 50 Canadians (2 per cent) associate a culture of harassment with the CAF – up from 1 per cent in 2020.
This suggests Canadians view the CAF as a small, underfunded, but well-trained organization that has difficulty being effective because of its reliance on outdated equipment. Interestingly, Canadians are much more likely to think that the priority when buying military equipment should be creating jobs (64 per cent) rather than getting the best price (7 per cent). Asked separately how much of a priority buying military equipment from the United States should be, only 12 per cent of Canadians agreed buying American should be a priority.
When it comes to the Canadian Armed Forces, there are a number of bright spots. Canadians are more than seven times more likely to have a positive impression (68 per cent) than a negative (9 per cent) one if a friend or family member decided to join the CAF. They are six times more likely to think the CAF is good at what it does (56 per cent) rather than not good (9 per cent).
It also appears many Canadians are willing to personally serve their country in different capacities were Canada to be involved in a major conflict. Fifty-seven per cent report an interest in volunteering to support civil defence responses, and 45 per cent say they would join a civil defence organization on a part-time (45 per cent) or full-time (32 per cent) basis. Significantly, nearly one in five Canadians (19 per cent) say they would be open to joining the Forces as a part-time job (as in reserve duty) and 12 per cent would join the CAF as a full-time job (or enlist).
Canadians are living in a moment where they feel the ground shifting, recalibrating long-standing assumptions about allies, threats, and our own military capacity. Past complacency is gone. The appetite for action on defence investments is strengthening. More importantly, faced with a major challenge, many Canadians are ready to serve.