Canadians' views on the country have been more upbeat during Mark Carney's time in office, according to polling.Christinne Muschi/The Canadian Press
Nik Nanos is the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, research adjunct professor at the Norman Paterson School for International Affairs at Carleton University, and the official pollster for The Globe and Mail and CTV News.
With the Justin Trudeau era behind them, Canadians feel better today than they have in quite a while.
Should Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals feel good? Possibly. Should they feel confident? Nope.
Looking at the mood of Canadians, ballot trends and events south of the border, brace yourself: 2026 may feature an early federal election.
Views on the country are decidedly more upbeat now than at the tail end of the Trudeau government. The data suggests we can call this a Carney honeymoon. The big question is whether the optimism will survive 2026.
For the past 19 years, Nanos has conducted the Mood of Canada national survey. So how do Canadians feel about the country under Mr. Carney compared to his predecessors, Mr. Trudeau and Stephen Harper?
Mr. Carney’s most positive comparative score is on the federal-provincial front. The proportion of Canadians who feel the relationship between the federal and provincial governments over the past year has improved hit a 19-year high, with people more than twice as likely to say it has improved/somewhat improved (20 per cent improved, 33 per cent somewhat improved) compared to it having not improved (12 per cent) or somewhat not improved (11 per cent). This is the highest positive score on the state of federal-provincial relations since Nanos started tracking this in 2007. In comparison, while 53 per cent of respondents gave some sort of positive score on this front, the best result for Mr. Harper between 2007 and 2014 was 21 per cent. On federal-provincial relations, Mr. Carney rates as twice as good as Mr. Harper and better than Mr. Trudeau’s best years.
We also asked about Canada’s reputation around the world. When Mr. Trudeau was still prime minister, only one in 10 Canadians scored our reputation as improving (4 per cent improved, 6 per cent somewhat improved). Scores have improved from 10 per cent to 56 per cent asserting that things are getting better. Mr. Carney’s score on international relations is higher than at any time during the Harper government.
Asked about the performance of the federal government, Mr. Carney received the second-highest score in 19 years of tracking, with more than one in two Canadians scoring the federal government as very good (24 per cent) or somewhat good (29 per cent). The only higher score was in 2015 immediately following the election of Mr. Trudeau. Impressions of the federal government are higher under Mr. Carney than in any year under Mr. Harper.
A key measure is how people feel about the direction of the country. The score has noticeably improved over the past year under Mr. Carney (53 per cent say we are headed in the right direction), compared to Mr. Trudeau’s last year, when 23 per cent thought the country was headed in the right direction. Mr. Trudeau’s “right direction” number in December, 2024, just before his resignation, was a 19-year low for any prime minister. Mr. Harper wins on the “right track” perceptions with scores in 2007, 2009 and 2011 that were higher than any other prime minister in the Nanos tracking.
One key trend over time is that Canadians tend to feel good about election outcomes and their country until prime ministers start governing. The highest “right direction” scores consistently follow elections.
For Mr. Carney and the Liberals, if the 19-year trend holds, the chances of positive perceptions weakening are high. Year one was about being different than Justin Trudeau. Year two will be about defending the record. The more there is to defend, the more difficult the political management.
Although the “right direction” scores for Canada under Mr. Carney are better than the last four years of Mr. Trudeau, the sense of the future seems foggier under Mr. Carney than under Mr. Harper. For Mr. Harper, an important part of his vision was energy within a stable North American trade pact. Mr. Carney can talk about Canada being an energy superpower like Mr. Harper did, but the continental situation is uncertain under U.S. President Donald Trump.
Even with Canadians feeling better about the federation and our international reputation, the federal ballot tracking by Nanos suggests a horse race between the Liberals and the Conservatives. The good news for the Liberals is that Mr. Carney is currently a runaway choice over Pierre Poilievre according to the preferred prime minister tracking. Think of ballot support for the Liberals being driven by Mr. Carney and the ballot support for the Conservatives being driven by an appetite for change.
Still, setting aside the political theatre of floor-crossing in the House of Commons, which is favouring the Liberals, Mr. Carney’s grip on the House is tenuous.
That brings us to why we may see a federal election in 2026.
Mr. Carney may see the political bandwidth needed to stay alive in the House of Commons as a distraction from the need to build economic resilience. Every prime minister wants a strong mandate to govern as they see fit. The uncertainty of Canada’s trade relationship with the U.S. likely heightens the appetite for a strong parliamentary mandate.
Consumer confidence remains tepidly neutral as Canadians wait and see what will happen in the trade negotiations. Expect the economic holding pattern to continue in 2026 until there is more certainty.
Mr. Trump may want to keep the trade negotiations up in the air so that going into this year’s midterms elections, he can position himself as a fighter for American jobs. Canada may very well be a casualty of America politics. After the midterms, Mr. Trump will have more latitude to bring some sort of agreement forward on trade with Canada and Mexico.
Mr. Carney might want to head to the polls before he’s forced to defend a less-favourable trade agreement. The Liberal Party’s reversal of fortunes in 2025 was about who Canadians believed could better manage the Canada-U.S. relationship. If the free-trade negotiations don’t go Mr. Carney’s way, the Liberals are at risk.
So how could 2026 unfold?
The Canadian economy will sputter along. Mr. Trump will look to squeeze Canada as part of a midterm election strategy and Mr. Carney may believe it is more advantageous to head to the polls before a trade deal is struck. The real question is whether Mr. Carney can keep Canadians feeling good about the direction of the country.