Nik Nanos is the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, research adjunct professor at the Norman Paterson School for International Affairs at Carleton University, a global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington and the official pollster for The Globe and Mail and CTV News.
By the end of 2024, the next Canadian federal election was shaping up to be a car crash for the Liberals. The party, which has been in power since 2015, seemed destined for political exile. Despite weathering U.S. President Donald Trump’s first term, the pandemic, the SNC-Lavalin affair and the WE charity controversy – or probably because of these things – Justin Trudeau had become a polarizing figure, while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was probably measuring the drapes in the Prime Minister’s Office.
With a massive 27-point Conservative advantage at the beginning of 2025, the expected showdown between Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Poilievre was shaping up to be a disaster for a tired Liberal government that had hit its best-before date. Not often does one see massive, short-term swings in a non-election campaign period.
But Mr. Trudeau’s resignation, Mr. Trump’s musings on tariffs and the subsequent election of Mark Carney as Liberal Leader, has resulted in a significant change. The upcoming federal election is going to be a horse race.
How do we explain the swing in public opinion? It’s clear that the Conservatives’ lead in the polls was not an embrace of Mr. Poilievre or his party’s policies. Rather, it was a repudiation of Mr. Trudeau and his government.
Apart from the race narrowing, two other data trends have redrawn the battle lines for the next election. At the end of 2024, 54 per cent of Canadians said they would consider voting Conservative. That has since declined to 43 per cent. In late December, only 35 per cent of Canadians said they would consider voting Liberal. That has now increased to 50 per cent, surpassing the Conservatives.
The anger once directed at Mr. Trudeau has shifted toward Mr. Trump. When we asked an open-ended question regarding today’s top national issue of concern, Mr. Trump received the most responses – concern about Mr. Trump and U.S.-Canada relations received 27 per cent of the responses, up 12 points in four weeks. When asked what will influence their vote, a recent CTV News/Nanos survey suggests two of three Canadians will be swayed by who they think can best deal with Mr. Trump (36 per cent).
Mr. Trump has triggered an unusual mix of emotions in Canadians. A new Globe and Mail/Nanos survey shows that Canadians are experiencing anxiousness for the future (67 per cent), are avoiding the internet/news (31 per cent) and feeling financial stress (23 per cent) as a result of the current diplomatic tensions with the United States. The same survey shows that our self-image as a nation has improved (30 per cent) or somewhat improved (25 per cent) over the past year, while our view of the U.S. has fallen off a cliff. Almost nine in 10 Canadians say their opinion of the United States has worsened (78 per cent) or somewhat worsened (10 per cent) compared to a year ago.
Add to the emotion the dampening consumer confidence which started literally the day after Mr. Trump won the presidency. In advance of November’s U.S. election, Canadian consumer confidence, as measured by the Bloomberg/Nanos Canadian Consumer Confidence Index, was in positive territory. That’s no longer the case, and about six in 10 Canadians think the economy will further weaken over the next year.
The combination of Mr. Trump’s assault on the Canadian economy and Mr. Trudeau’s resignation in short succession have been game changers, refocusing voters on the future instead of the past. If the next election was about the past 10 years, Mr. Poilievre would be riding high and crushing the Liberals. Right now, the next election is shaping up to be one about the future and who could best navigate the changing world order.
Buckle up, because the federal election is going to be a wild ride. When the numbers swing quickly in one direction, they can swing again and yet again. Today’s trend line, which is favouring the Liberals, can change – and change quickly.
We can also throw preconceptions about party loyalty or anger at the incumbents out the door. Expect voters to size up the choices not based on their track record or snappy sound bites but on a cold, hard assessment as to who can best deal with Mr. Trump and who can help Canada best navigate a changing world economy.
Speaking of Mr. Trump, he is both an accelerant and enabler of instability. Expect the party leaders to see both their political rivals and Mr. Trump as their opponents. The prolific and almost daily commentary from the White House on Canada will undermine the ability of Canadian political leaders to shape the narrative of the coming campaign. The ironic twist is that for a nation fixated on possible foreign interference in our democracy, the 2025 election could very well showcase another country’s open and transparent influence on the Canadian election.
Canadians face some very clear yet imperfect choices. On the one hand, Mr. Poilievre is a battle-hardened and disciplined politician. On the other hand, Mr. Carney can claim experience navigating things like the Great Recession and Brexit, but remains politically untested.
A competitive election is good for democracy and good for those who aspire to lead our nation. This campaign will likely be as important as the epic 1988 free-trade election, when Canadians laid the track for the country’s future.
The outcome is uncertain, though one thing isn’t: Everyone’s vote will matter this time.