The rapid demise of Canada-U.S. official relations, marked by fury in one nation and indifference or bewilderment in the other, suggests there will be no quick reconciliation or return to something resembling normal, writes Charles Burton.Adrian Wyld/The Associated Press
Charles Burton is a former diplomat at Canada’s embassy in Beijing, senior fellow at Sinopsis.cz, a China-focused think tank based in Prague, and author of The Beaver and the Dragon: How China Out-Manoeuvred Canada’s Diplomacy, Security and Sovereignty.
For all of the confusion about where the Ottawa-Washington meltdown will lead, one thing seems certain. The big winners of this diplomatic collapse will be China and other repressive dictatorships eager to become our new “strategic” partners and further undermine the world’s stabilizing democracy bloc.
Beijing in particular wants to inherit Canada’s economic dependence. Establishing such a broader North American beachhead will only further President Xi Jinping’s resolute goal of displacing the U.S. as a global hegemon, and cementing a China-dominated world order whose very foundation is the rejection of democratic freedoms and human rights.
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The rapid demise of Canada-U.S. official relations, marked by fury in one nation and indifference or bewilderment in the other, suggests there will be no quick reconciliation or return to something resembling normal. In the span of a few days this mercantile dispute – seeded by the new American right-wing agenda to cripple Canada’s sovereignty and stability, make it a vassal state and reap its resources – became an incendiary divorce riven by irreconcilable differences.
The impacts on Canada will bring historic changes, domestically and internationally.
Most Canadians feel Ottawa cannot abide sorting things out in good faith with the likes of Mr. Trump, Vice-President JD Vance and Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick. They are fed up with the administration’s insults, vulgar greed and dishonesty – epitomized so aptly by the Gordie Howe Bridge extortion.
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The MAGA mentality will likely never understand, or care, why the relationship has broken down. They just expect Canada to cave and surrender concessions that wildly stack the deck in a fashion dictated by Mr. Trump. The reality, however, is that most Canadians will never agree to resolve this by becoming, as Mr. Vance might say, “more Trumpian.”
Of course, this rupture transcends just trade. Politically, we likely will not be able to buy all 88 of the advanced American F-35s that Ottawa once coveted, and there will almost certainly be no Canadian role in a Golden Dome defence system. As Canada races to modernize and expand its military capabilities, our defence industries are salivating with anticipation. The rest of us can expect to bear much higher taxes to pay for it.
Canada’s most obvious path to rebuilding commercial and defence security is through closer partnership ties with Europe, but such a pivot will not be without significant costs to our sovereign independence, even if we avoided formally joining the EU. After all, the United Kingdom did not opt for Brexit without reason.
If Canada ever reaches a point where attacks on our economy put families’ livelihoods at stake, then standing firm on our moral principles will give way to tolerating – or at least ignoring – human rights abuses in exchange for restoring Canadian prosperity through trade and investment with the likes of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and China. As someone who has been sanctioned by both Beijing and Moscow for standing up for Canadian democratic and civil values in global affairs, this prospect is deeply troubling.
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When Mr. Xi makes a landmark trip to North America next month, it is expected he will add a Canadian stop, the first time in 16 years a Chinese head of state has visited this country. And this at a time when there have been calls for Ottawa to scrap restrictions on importing Chinese-made EVs, to locate Chinese auto factories here, and to even encourage Canadians to buy “Great Wall wine” instead of Californian.
In contrast to the belligerent threats that Canadians have been conditioned to expect from Washington, the Chinese President will project dignity and a tone of respect and goodwill toward Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Canadian business associates, who will be offering a warm welcome to the Chinese delegation.
But like Howitt’s “Spider and the Fly,” in which a cunning spider uses seduction and manipulation to lure a fly into its web, Canada should be wary of those who wield flattery and charm to disguise other intentions. Rushing to embrace China’s expansionist and calculating totalitarian regime will never work out well for Canada’s overall interest.
In the current hostile landscape, Canada could find itself deeply regretting coming out of an American frying pan into a Chinese fire.