Leader of the Bloc Québécois Yves-François Blanchet speaks in the Foyer of the House of Commons following a vote in the House on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, on Oct. 2, 2024.Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press
Quebec sovereigntists have always been among the strongest supporters of continental free trade. Under Jacques Parizeau, the Parti Québécois backed the original 1989 Canada-U.S. free-trade agreement as an insurance policy against economic blackmail by the rest of Canada. Ever since, sovereigntists have favoured north-south over east-west trade links.
Thanks to free trade with the United States, Mr. Parizeau wrote in 1997, an independent Quebec would “protect itself from any commercial or economic reprisals that Canada might contemplate following a declaration of sovereignty.” He likened the arrangement to “calling on the Americans to protect us against the Canadians.”
That argument has now been turned on its head by U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist swipes at his country’s northern neighbour. Strengthening interprovincial trade ties has become a top priority, as has diversifying Canada’s trade with the rest of the world. Quebeckers are suddenly feeling more Canadian than they have in a while.
This has left the Bloc Québécois struggling to strike the right tone amid a surge in Canadian patriotism. Slagging the rest of Canada does not quite cut it with Quebeckers when they are a feeling a wave of solidarity with their Canadian cousins. Mr. Trump’s badgering about making Canada the 51st U.S. state has angered Quebeckers as much as other Canadians.
As recently as early January, the Bloc was riding high in the polls. Quebeckers had soured on the federal Liberals under Justin Trudeau while having never warmed to the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre. Trade woes were far from top of mind as debates over language, immigration and secularism continued to dominate Quebec politics.
Had a federal election been held then, the Bloc would have swept more than 40 of Quebec’s 78 seats in Parliament and likely formed the official opposition in Ottawa. Now, the sovereigntist party has fallen into a distant second place behind the resurgent Liberals.
A Léger poll released on Wednesday found support for the Liberals under their new Leader, Mark Carney, at 36 per cent in Quebec. The Bloc and Tories were neck-and-neck at 25 per cent and 24 per cent, respectively, according to the online poll of 1,007 Quebeckers. Bloc support is down 11 percentage points from December. Support for Quebec sovereignty, meanwhile, has dropped to 29 per cent from 37 per cent.
Of course, no one knows how long the Liberal bounce will last. Almost twice as many Quebeckers see Mr. Carney rather than Mr. Poilievre as the best leader to defend Canada against Mr. Trump. The former Bank of Canada governor’s economic credentials remain his strong suit as Quebeckers focus as much as other Canadians on their economic security.
Still, Mr. Carney’s unsteady French could prove to be a handicap on the campaign trail as the Bloc pitches a Quebec-first approach to dealing with the Americans. Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet warns that Ottawa could throw Quebec’s dairy, forestry, aluminum and aerospace sectors under the bus as it seeks to protect Ontario’s auto industry, Toronto-based banks and Alberta’s oil patch.
After Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston recently urged Mr. Blanchet to abandon his “small-mindedness” and get behind a revival of the Energy East oil pipeline project abandoned in 2017, Mr. Blanchet dispatched a letter to Mr. Houston reiterating the Bloc’s “fierce opposition toward any project aiming to turn Quebec into a highway for the West’s dirty oil and gas.” The Bloc Leader further charged that Mr. Houston’s “thirst for national unity did not exist when Quebec was asking for an equal distribution of asylum seekers among the provinces.”
Mr. Carney and Mr. Poilievre have pledged protection for supply management in Canada’s dairy, poultry and egg markets in any Canada-U.S. trade negotiations. But that promise could fall by the wayside in the face of Mr. Trump’s continued attacks on “outrageous” Canadian tariffs on U.S. dairy imports, above the relatively low amounts of foreign dairy products allowed to enter Canada tariff-free under the United States-Mexico-Canada agreement. Mr. Trump seems particularly obsessed with Canada’s dairy protectionism.
The Bloc has been road-testing a new slogan as it gears up for an imminent federal election call. The party recently ran newspaper ads with the tagline “Qui va parler pour le Québec?“ (“Who will speak for Quebec?”) and questioning the commitment of other federal parties to standing up for the province in the face of Mr. Trump’s tariffs.
“Quebec does not need to be part of Canada to ally itself with Canada and Mexico against the United States. That is a myth,” Mr. Blanchet said this week. “We do not need to submit to or be servile toward another country to carry our voice or ally ourselves with it.”
Still, there is no doubt that the end of an era in Canada-U.S. free trade has upended Quebec’s sovereigntists. Mr. Trump has just ripped up their insurance policy.