U.S. President Donald Trump in the Rose Garden at the White House on Monday. Trump insisted his military operation in Iran would be quick – limited, contained, and focused on a clear objective – but it has been none of those things, writes Robyn Urback.Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
U.S. President Donald Trump started a fire.
He was convinced it would be one of those quick infernos: a big explosion that would engulf and char the bodies of former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and topple regime officials, and then fizzle out to nothing. Afterwards, the land would be fertile for regrowth and renewal, like a forest after a controlled fire.
The President insisted this military operation would be quick – limited, contained and focused on a clear objective – though of course it was none of those things. It was a pre-emptive fire because the Iranians have flame-throwers, the White House said. And also, a fire to eliminate top officials, and a fire to destroy Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities, and a fire about oil, and a fire to clear the path for regime change. But when a goal is undefined, the job will never be done. So the fire burns out of control, igniting neighbouring houses, destroying communities and claiming thousands of innocent lives.
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Now the notoriously goldfish-brained President is bored, according to a recent report in The Atlantic, which isn’t surprising for a man who needed mostly visuals for his daily briefs in his first term, and has barely sat for them in his second. A President obsessed with building a legacy has discovered it won’t happen in Iran, so he’s over it; the explosions, the casualties, the billions of dollars his country has spent on munitions just isn’t interesting anymore. So he’d like to move on and declare “mission accomplished,” even if the region is still smouldering and his party is buckling under the political weight of the exorbitant gas prices caused by his war. But the Iranians aren’t co-operating. So the fire burns on.
The U.S. should have had all of the cards in this battle. It has the infrastructure, the weapons, the military capacity, the technological know-how, and the capital. Ahead of that first attack on Feb. 28, the assumption by both the Israelis and by Mr. Trump was that the regime would be too weakened to choke off the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil passes. According to reporting by CNN, the White House also assumed that the Iranians would not close the Strait even if they were able, since doing so would hurt them economically much more than it would the United States.
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And indeed, Iran’s economy is enduring a pummelling, particularly after the U.S. imposed a retaliatory blockade in April after talks to end the war broke down. More than 90 per cent of Iran’s exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and with its ships now forced to turn around, the country is experiencing massive inflation, job losses, and the prospect of spending billions of dollars to repair damaged infrastructure. Iran is in crisis, but it’s not giving up – not even close. Its latest proposal to end the war reportedly included no nuclear concessions, demands for war damage compensation and a guarantee of its sovereignty and control over the Strait of Hormuz. Mr. Trump called the proposal “garbage,” which is an apt description since it would leave Iran in a stronger strategic position than it was before Mr. Trump launched the war.
But Iran can afford to make such outrageous demands because it holds one card that is arguably just as powerful as the U.S.’s full deck: It doesn’t care about its people. The Iranian people have suffered for decades under its brutal theocratic regime (combined with sanctions-related scarcity), and now they are being made to suffer for a different cause. The new Supreme Leader does not have to worry about midterms, or internal opposition (a prolonged internet blackout helps to quell political organization) or even hunger, poverty or desperation. Not for a while, anyway. If the Americans resume bombing, so be it; the dead will be martyrs. And the Americans will grow more restless, more anxious to end the war.
This is the inferno that Mr. Trump has created, from which he now wishes to walk away. There’s a reason why young children, who often lack the capacity for meaningful empathy, for understanding cause and effect, and for paying attention for long periods of time, are not allowed to play with matches; the deranged ones will walk away, bored, even when those trapped are screaming for help. And while Mr. Trump might be ready to cut his losses, the Iranians are happy to bask in the glow for a little longer yet.