U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the press as he departs the White House on Tuesday.Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Peter Jones is a professor in the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa.
Donald Trump is a terrible negotiator.
Negotiation requires the mastery of complex files, and the development of options for alternate outcomes. It requires the ability to generate trust. It requires working with your opponent to create win-win solutions, particularly in an ongoing relationship which requires nurturing. All this is the art of negotiation.
Mr. Trump is good at none of it. He pursues deals through intimidation and bullying. He speaks of “leverage” as the key tool. The “art of the deal” for him is the art of bullying one’s way to the best unilateral, and frequently short-term, outcome.
Problem is, Mr. Trump has no ability to overcome a situation in which the other side won’t be bullied. Iran’s refusal to give in mystifies him; “They have no navy, they have no air force …” He is amazed that beating Iran militarily does not allow him to dictate terms. He does not understand that war has dimensions beyond military ones – that a foe can be militarily defeated but still fight back economically and diplomatically.
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His ceasefire dance is comical: I declare a ceasefire, but I reserve the right to attack during it; I will end Iran’s civilization at midnight, or maybe declare another ceasefire; I am ending that ceasefire in a few hours – except I am now declaring it indefinite, but only for as long as I want; I “obliterated” their nuclear program last year, but now concerns about their ability to rapidly build a bomb are the key issue.
No serious leader acts like this. Mr. Trump wants an off-ramp, but doesn’t know how to find one.
Finally, he is angry that allies did not rush to help, even though he unilaterally declared this war and has spent the last year insulting and bullying them.
For Canada, three insights from this are important as we face USMCA.
First, over a century of being an ally to the U.S. means nothing; all that matters is what Mr. Trump wants right now. And making concessions to build trust and credit is a fool’s errand. He will take concessions and demand more. We must, for as long as Mr. Trump is in power, stop thinking of America as a friendly country that negotiates as if a key goal is to strengthen that friendship.
Second, Mr. Trump only respects power. Canada has leverage: energy, potash, critical minerals, wood, security co-operation, and the size of our market. We are the number one customer for American goods and services. We don’t have to bluster about it as he would. Quiet, but firm action to show that we have it will do. They have noticed the lack of American booze on Canadian store shelves and the significant drop in Canadians visiting the U.S. They are noticing our trade deals with others, like China. Good. Keep it up.
Third, incredible as it may seem, Mr. Trump may not even know what he wants. Aside from selective trade imbalances (which fluctuate, and don’t represent the totality of the economic relationship), and a few things like supply management in dairy, he is all over the place. If we hold out, his pain will grow to the point that he will take what’s on the table and declare victory, as long as he can show his base that he was a tough guy on a few issues – and be able post on social media that “It’s the best deal ever!!!”
We need to know what we want and have the patience to let him come to us as his position weakens. And it will. The U.S. debt is rapidly ballooning. Their economy is weakening. Mr. Trump’s tariffs are in tatters. Devastating mid-terms loom.
The President will spend the next few months trying to bully his way to a deal. We cannot be stampeded, as others have been who now regret it.
USMCA does not go poof on July 1. It enters a 10-year period of annual reviews to see if a deal can be made. Obviously, it is better to have the certainty that a deal this year would bring. But not if it is a terrible deal – and there is no guarantee he would abide by any deal he made anyway.
Mr. Trump could announce withdrawal from USMCA. That would trigger a six-month clock to end the agreement. He may muse about this. But Mr. Trump is highly sensitive to his own pain. Leaders across American industries have repeatedly said that leaving USMCA would hurt America badly.
We should be ready to actually negotiate once he is – but not until then.