Ontario Premier Doug Ford in Ottawa on Monday. By retiring now, Ford could increase the chances of the Progressive Conservatives remaining in power for years – perhaps even decades – to come, writes John Ibbitson.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
John Ibbitson is a writer and journalist.
The “gravy plane” mess lasted only a few days. But it sent a message. If Doug Ford hears that message, the Ontario Premier will soon retire.
The public learned last week that the provincial government had acquired a preowned Bombardier Challenger 650 jet aircraft. On Sunday, in the wake of opposition howls, the Premier announced the government would sell the jet. “I have heard and agree that now is not the right time for the expense of a government plane,” he declared.
Case closed. But the incident suggests that this government is growing long in the tooth and rich in entitlement, which makes it ripe for defeat.
Mr. Ford could prevent that defeat by deciding to quit. In doing so, he could increase the chances of the Progressive Conservatives remaining in power for years – perhaps even decades – to come.
Robyn Urback: Doug Ford gives up a gravy plane for his normal clown car
For 42 years, from 1943 to 1985, Progressive Conservatives governed Ontario. The Big Blue Machine, they called it. The secret to their success was, in part, changing leaders at the right time.
George Drew narrowly defeated the governing Liberals in 1943, consolidating power and then winning a majority government in 1945. But he was defeated in his own riding in the 1948 election, even though the PCs had won another majority. Rather than entering the legislature through a by-election, Drew opted to head to Ottawa to lead the federal Progressive Conservatives.
His successor, Leslie Frost, nicknamed “Old Man Ontario” and “the Silver Fox,” combined political cunning with a progressive bent that suited a province rapidly expanding after the Second World War. After three successive majority-government wins, with the Liberal Party cycling through successive failed leaders, Frost announced his retirement in 1961.
He was succeeded by John Robarts, dubbed the “Chairman of the Board.” He expanded public education and health care, established the GO Transit commuter train service, created Ontario Place and the Ontario Science Centre, brought nuclear power to the electricity grid, and expanded francophone rights.
Doug Ford to sell private government jet days after purchase was revealed
In 1971, after 10 successful years as premier, Mr. Robarts retired. The next leader was former education minister Bill Davis, who governed for 14 years, through four elections resulting in two majority and two minority governments.
Unflappable, though far from charismatic – “bland works,” he once famously said – Mr. Davis continued the expansion of public education and health care and played a pivotal role in enabling prime minister Pierre Trudeau to patriate the Constitution with a bill of rights.
But there was a huge outcry in 1981 when the government purchased a $10.6-million Challenger jet, at the height of a major recession. After more than a year of incessant hounding from the opposition, the government traded the jet for a pair of water bombers.
Sound familiar?
In the 1985 election, David Peterson’s Liberals won the popular vote and came within four seats of defeating the Progressive Conservatives, led by former treasurer Frank Miller.
Mr. Peterson and NDP leader Bob Rae agreed topple the Miller government on a vote of non-confidence, allowing the Liberals to govern with NDP support. From then until 2018, Ontario was governed by Liberals (Mr. Peterson, Dalton McGuinty, Kathleen Wynne), Progressive Conservatives (Mike Harris, Ernie Eves) and the NDP (Mr. Rae). Then Doug Ford arrived. The PCs have owned Queen’s Park ever since.
The Premier won three majority governments by championing a pragmatic populism that consigned the Liberals to third place in the legislature, with NDP Leader Marit Stiles having little prospect of ever winning power.
The Liberals are about to choose yet another leader. Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith is expected to run. Navdeep Bains, a senior figure in Justin Trudeau’s cabinet before leaving public life in 2021, may also enter the race. Either of them could pose a formidable challenge to Mr. Ford, and other serious contenders could be running as well.
Perhaps Mr. Ford could again defeat the Liberals, no matter who led them. But just as no prime minister has won four consecutive majority governments since Wilfrid Laurier, no Ontario premier has won four consecutive majority governments since Oliver Mowat, the Liberal premier from 1872 to 1896.
Mr. Ford would be tempting fate by seeking a fourth term.
Like Drew, Mr. Ford may have ambitions to lead the Conservatives federally, in which case he would be wiser to leave as premier now, to preserve his political capital for later.
The debacle of purchasing a government jet helped do in one Progressive Conservative dynasty. Mr. Ford may want to consider his future, lest it happen again.