Elon Musk waves to supporters during a town hall in Green Bay, Wis., in March. The billionaire entrepreneur has decided to start a third political party.Jeffrey Phelps/The Associated Press
James Carville, the longtime loudmouth strategist for the Democrats, says his party will pick up 40 seats in the midterm elections owing to Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill,” which passed last week.
How’s that for wishful thinking? But Democrats do have reason to be cheered by what the Grand Old Party has just done.
With the legislation, Mr. Trump turned his back on his much-repeated promise not to cut Medicaid. The new act tears the biggest hole in the American social safety net in memory. The Congressional Budget Office estimates it will leave nearly 12 million more Americans without health coverage over the coming years.
That’s not all the measure does for Mr. Trump’s opponents. A greater gift is that it has triggered a total rupture of relations with his former ally Elon Musk to the point where, with his US$400-billion, the wild-eyed entrepreneur says he is starting a third political party.
It’s a long shot, but given the tightness of races between Republicans and Democrats, even if the new party only gets a few percentage points in support, it could well be enough to have a major impact in the midterm elections next year and the general election in 2028.
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What a splendid irony it would be if Mr. Musk, who helped secure the Trump win in 2024, brought on the defeat of his party in ’26, ’28 or both. What good news for Canada to have the Democrats back in power. Go Elon!
The Tesla and Space X founder had an earlier split with Mr. Trump, but appeared to be patching things up until the arrival of the new bill, with tax cuts and other measures that he believes will skyrocket the debt to the point of catastrophe. He’s called the bill, which includes lovely tax cuts for the rich, “insane” and “pork-filled” and a “disgusting abomination.”
Third parties are traditional failures in American politics. They don’t last and Mr. Musk’s probably won’t either. But they can have major short-term effects. Ross Perot’s Reform Party won almost 20 per cent of the vote in the 1992 election, helping precipitate the defeat of George H. W. Bush. Ralph Nader’s Green Party then handed the White House to Mr. Bush’s son in 2000 courtesy of its impact on the vote in the decisive state of Florida.
According to Gallup, 58 per cent of U.S. adults agree that a third major party is needed in the U.S. More Americans are identifying as independents than ever.
As the owner of X, the big social-media outlet, and as the world’s wealthiest man with limitless resources for advertising, Mr. Musk will be able to generate enormous exposure for his new party. The avalanche of hostile publicity will likely stir division among Republicans. It will drive Mr. Trump up the wall.
The Republicans hold very slim majorities in the House and Senate. In the midterms, the Democrats have an excellent shot at winning the House and a much tougher task at the Senate, though it is doable. For the midterms, Mr. Musk says he wants to laser-focus on a few seats in each chamber. For the general election to follow, he will have much more time to build his party.
He says his party will appeal to the middle. He is calling it the America Party. It’s a lousy name because it doesn’t do enough to differentiate from Mr. Trump’s “America First” schtick.
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In addition to getting on the ballot in many states, the challenge will be daunting for Mr. Musk because of his image problems. Tesla shares plummeted on the news of his plan to begin a new party. In a recent YouGov poll, 55 per cent had an unfavourable view of Mr. Musk, compared with only 35 per cent who had a favourable impression. When the pollster asked who they favoured between the two men, Mr. Trump had a large edge. Not that Mr. Trump is so popular himself. Polls show more Americans hold a negative opinion of him than positive. Multiple polls indicated strong opposition to his “Big, Beautiful Bill.”
Mr. Trump now calls Mr. Musk a “train wreck.” How skilled the Canadian-educated (Queen’s University) 54-year-old is at politics remains to be seen. He was effective in the 2024 campaign largely because of the US$290-million he threw in. In his short time running the Department of Government Efficiency for Mr. Trump, he caused such disarray and dissent that he left after just a few months on the job.
He was in fact off the rails, but that may be what is needed to take on Mr. Trump. Someone like himself. Another egomaniac. Another chaos superspreader. Another train wreck.