Quebec Premier Christine Frechette, left, and Prime Minister Mark Carney at the Davie shipyard in Lévis, Que. on Aug. 24.Jacques Boissinot/The Canadian Press
Quebec Liberal Party Leader Charles Milliard hopes that Monday’s federal by-election victory by the Liberal Party of Canada in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord persuades federalists to rally behind the QLP in the Oct. 5 provincial election.
In normal times, he might get his wish. But Mr. Milliard’s party has lost its status as the default choice among francophone federalists as Christine Fréchette’s Coalition Avenir Québec cuddles up to Prime Minister Mark Carney amidst his trade war with Donald Trump.
On Tuesday, Ms. Fréchette jumped on a new Léger poll that confirmed her party’s momentum, issuing a plea to federalists “disappointed by the Quebec Liberal Party leadership” to get behind the CAQ to prevent a Parti Québécois victory – and a promised third referendum on sovereignty. While the CAQ still trails the PQ by eight percentage points among francophones, with 27-per-cent support, its score has doubled since Ms. Fréchette became leader in April.
The Léger survey pegged support for Mr. Milliard’s Liberals at a mere 10 per cent among French-speaking voters, putting it in fourth place behind the Quebec Conservative Party, at 16 per cent, and tied with the far-left Québec Solidaire. While the QLP still dominates among anglophone voters, it risks being shut out of seat-rich francophone Quebec.
This is not all Mr. Milliard’s fault. He became Liberal Leader in February after Pablo Rodriguez stepped down amid a scandal over the financing of his 2025 leadership campaign. But Mr. Milliard’s low profile during the summer, and his flip-flopping on the use the Constitution’s notwithstanding clause to protect language legislation, have not helped the PLQ.
Donald Trump has imposed himself as the X factor in Quebec’s election
Meanwhile, the high-energy Ms. Fréchette has deftly exploited her role as Premier to score what she calls “victories” for Quebec by striking a strong working relationship with Mr. Carney. The two leaders have appeared together in recent weeks to announce nearly $10-billion in federal transfers to Quebec for infrastructure, federal loan guarantees on a $30-billion hydro development in Labrador to be led by Hydro-Québec and an $11-billion contract for Quebec’s Davie shipyard to build six icebreakers for the Canadian Coast Guard.
“My team neither works for nor against Ottawa,” Ms. Fréchette said in launching her campaign last week. “We work for Quebec.”
While former CAQ premier François Legault regularly clashed with Ottawa as he pushed his government’s “autonomist” agenda, seeking more power over immigration and the nomination of judges, Ms. Fréchette has struck a conciliatory tone toward Mr. Carney. The Prime Minister’s popularity in Quebec and calls for unity in the face of Mr. Trump’s trade offensive help to explain her eagerness to appear constructive.
Her approach could backfire if Quebeckers start to feel the sting from U.S. tariffs that kicked in after Mr. Carney pulled out of trade negotiations with the Trump administration last month and from the retaliatory tariffs that Canada intends to implement next week. Ms. Fréchette has conceded she would have preferred “targeted” and “strategic” counter-tariffs on U.S. goods rather than the dollar-for-dollar retaliation Mr. Carney has chosen.
Still, Ms. Fréchette, who has distanced herself from Mr. Legault by changing her party’s official name to Équipe Christine Fréchette-Coalition Avenir Québec, has clearly benefited from the economic uncertainty caused by Mr. Trump’s endless attacks on Canada. Like Mr. Carney, she appears unflappable in the face of the storm.
PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has accused the Carney government of keeping Ms. Fréchette out of the loop during last month’s trade negotiations with Washington, and has cast doubt on Mr. Carney’s claims that U.S. negotiators sought concessions on Canada’s bilingual labelling requirements and digital content rules favouring French. Several members of Mr. Trump’s inner circle have accused Mr. Carney of exaggerating those claims to score political points in Quebec in advance of the provincial election.
Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon argues that a PQ government would push for a bigger say in future trade negotiations to defend Quebec’s interests, insisting this week: “Never is Quebec stronger than when there is a PQ government to make it heard and respected.”
Still, the PQ’s hopes of winning a majority government have been receding since the breakdown of the trade talks as Quebeckers focus on the crisis at hand. With few signs that Ottawa and Washington will return to the negotiating table before the Quebec election, or even before the U.S. midterm elections in November, the PQ now needs a Plan B.
Any escalation in the Canada-U.S. trade war – a possibility if a vindicative Mr. Trump responds to Mr. Carney’s counter-tariffs with even more punitive levies on Canadian goods – could help Ms. Fréchette consolidate the anti-PQ vote as she courts supporters of Mr. Milliard’s Liberals and Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives to vote strategically.
All that makes the outcome of this election campaign look more and more like a toss-up.