Ontario Premier Doug Ford steps out of an office to speak to the media at the Ontario Legislature in Toronto on Dec. 11, 2024.Chris Young/The Canadian Press
It’s rather pitiful that the brains at the Ontario Premier’s Office couldn’t come up with a better excuse for Doug Ford’s early election call than the notion that he needs a “new mandate” to face the tariff threat from U.S. President Donald Trump. Mr. Ford already has a mandate – a majority government, elected two-and-a-half years ago – and a year-and-a-half left until the fixed election date, which gives him more than enough runway to properly advocate for Ontario’s interests.
Yet Mr. Ford’s government has been signalling its intention to call an early election for the better part of a year, through such tipoffs as fast-tracked government bills, launching the party nomination process this past fall, accelerating the sale of beer and wine in corner stores, sending out $200 bribes to all Ontarians, and of course, Mr. Ford refusing to rule out the possibility of an early election when he was asked back in May.
Most of this happened before Mr. Trump won the U.S. election in November (before which he was already pledging to levy heavy tariffs on Canada and other countries). This just exposes the lie that this early election call is all about a new mandate for fighting Mr. Trump’s tariffs. So why is Mr. Ford actually calling an early election now?
He’s popular, and the opposition leaders are unknowns
The Progressive Conservatives have a sizable lead, with support from roughly 43 per cent of committed voters, according to a recent Abacus poll, compared with 25 per cent for Liberals and 21 per cent for NDP. The PCs are 20 to 24 points ahead of the Liberals depending on the poll, which is more than enough to deliver Mr. Ford his third-consecutive majority. Bonnie Crombie has been the Ontario Liberal Leader for just one year and Marit Stiles has led the Ontario NDP for nearly two, which means that both are relatively unknown and untested. According to a recent Leger poll, 36 per cent of respondents had either never heard of Ms. Crombie or didn’t know enough to form an opinion, and more than half said the same of Ms. Stiles. So if the ballot question does become who can best take on Mr. Trump, Mr. Ford can be confident that Ontarians will go with the guy they know in the “Canada Is Not For Sale” hat over the women they haven’t heard of. Time risks changing that.
RCMP investigation
Police investigations have a way of hanging big, handcuffed-shaped clouds over an election campaign. Indeed, as Mr. Ford’s predecessor Kathleen Wynne can attest, it’s not the greatest look when a premier is testifying at a bribery trial six months before an election campaign, particularly when the provincial police is probing other government scandals. The RCMP is currently investigating Mr. Ford’s decision to open up the Greenbelt for development, and in particular, whether there was any criminal favouritism involved regarding developer access. There has been almost no news on the investigation since it was first launched in October, 2023, but that could change at any time. The Premier thus likely wants to lock up four more years now, before the RCMP wraps up its work.
We’re not in a recession – at least not yet
This one does relate to Mr. Trump, but it has little to do with Mr. Ford’s request for a new mandate. If the President does follow through on his threat of 25-per-cent tariffs on Canadian imports, it will throw Canada into a recession almost immediately. Job losses and severe economic hardship have a way of turning the electorate against the incumbent – even if, as in this case, the conditions are almost entirely beyond the incumbent’s control. Ontario’s early election will come just weeks after the expected implementation of Mr. Trump’s tariffs, which is not enough time for public opinion to turn on Mr. Ford; a year from now might be a different story. And since much of the public’s attention is currently focused on the chaos in Ottawa, now is an ideal time for Mr. Ford to slip in his bid for re-election.
A Conservative government will make the PCs look like Liberals
For years, Mr. Ford has had a convenient foil in outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, both because Mr. Trudeau has been the target of much of the public’s economic angst, and because the federal government’s considerable spending, waste and scandal has obscured Mr. Ford’s own spending, waste and scandal. But the Premier will soon lose his foil – and soon, his cover. If Pierre Poilievre does form government in Ottawa and implements a genuinely conservative fiscal policy, the contrast will expose the Ford government as the Kathleen Wynne government but with more beer. Mr. Ford needs his election now, when Mr. Trudeau is still around.