High expectations are an albatross for Carney. His Throne Speech must lower them

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Speeches from the Throne are often tedious affairs. They track the government’s agenda but in a boring, laundry-list kind of way. There’s not the raucous atmosphere seen at State of the Union addresses, with the president’s partisans cheering like banshees at their every word.

But our upcoming Throne Speech will be highly significant. After 10 years of Liberal rule, the speech will serve as a barometer for whether Justin Trudeau’s successor Mark Carney will be a bold departure, or just a new saddle on the same old Liberal donkey.

The speech has the distinction of being delivered for the first time since 1977 not by the Governor-General but by the monarch himself, King Charles III. Symbolic is the normal descriptive for his presence, but the speech will go beyond symbolism if, in the wake of Donald Trump’s annexation fixation, it contains a clear affirmation of Canadian independence and sovereignty.

Britain has just signed a trade agreement with the Trump administration and is pursuing close relations with Washington. Its government won’t want the King to irk the American President too much. But hopefully Charles will provide a headline grabbing pronouncement that registers a strong “Vive le Canada libre!” point.

For the last century, Ottawa’s focus has been mainly on strengthening ties with the U.S. as opposed to the motherland. The Throne Speech will signal, given the necessity of shifting reliance away from an egocentric America, a re-fortifying of the British connection.

Mr. Carney’s global stature and experience give him realistic hopes of growing Canada’s alliances and exercising more influence in international affairs.

But what the new Prime Minister must guard against is raising too many hopes for big successes on the domestic front. Great expectations are an albatross for new political leaders. They are practically never met. Mr. Carney has already raised them with sweeping statements like his vow to make the biggest transformation of the Canadian economy since the Second World War.

Others have raised the stakes markedly for him, seeing his credentials as the ideal fix for these tumultuous times. He’s not a political hack. He’s not a career politician. He is – or at least is supposed to be – a cut above.

But such high hopes are not justified when measured against the exceedingly tough challenges he faces. The country is in worse condition than when Stephen Harper took over in 2006, or Justin Trudeau in 2015.

To begin with the Trump tariffs, even though they’re being pared back in some cases, the levies will take a punishing toll on our deeply trade-dependent country. The prospect of a new prime minister quickly finding new markets to make up the shortfall is a pipe dream.

At home, Mr. Carney faces a housing crisis, burgeoning debt and deficits, rising unemployment, declining standards of living, weak productivity. Demands for more action on the climate crisis are running up against stronger demands for resource development.

The new PM faces a serious unity threat from the West with the possibility of a separatist referendum being held in Alberta. The separatist Parti Québécois appears en route to being re-elected in Quebec for the first time in over a decade, where it could hold another referendum as well.

Being seen as so well-versed in finance, Mr. Carney will be the focus of sharp criticism if the economy goes south, as is well possible. He’s been getting some favourable press treatment but that won’t last. The platform X is rife with right-wing voices, as is much of social media. The vast conservative Postmedia newspaper chain, which is financed by a New Jersey hedge fund, is dominant in most every major city across Canada. Mr. Carney will face daily attacks, especially from the tabloid Sun papers, which are part of the Postmedia conglomerate.

In the Commons, Mr. Carney will be the target of unrelenting vitriol from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre who, while chastised for his lack of civility in the Trudeau years, is unlikely to measurably change his ways.

One advantage Mr. Carney appeared to have is the unity and fervent patriotism sweeping the land in the face of the Trump threats. But that spirit has been diminished by the blackmail-like tactics of the Danielle Smith government in Alberta, the country’s wealthiest province per capita. It vows to give the go-ahead to a referendum if its economic demands are not met.

The prohibitive challenges the times present are such that no matter how skilled a new prime minister may be, he is likely to be thwarted. Mr. Carney faces long odds. Rather than raise expectations, his Speech from the Throne tone should reflect the hard realities the country and his government face.