Martin Imbleau, president and CEO of Alto, takes part in an announcement about the next steps for high-speed rail in Gatineau, Que., in, December, 2025.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
Matti Siemiatycki is the director of the Infrastructure Institute and professor of planning at the University of Toronto. He hosts the Good for Cities podcast.
After decades of false starts and misfires, the stars finally seem to be aligned for high-speed rail in Canada.
The federal government has formed a Crown corporation named Alto to lead the 1,000-kilometre project stretching from Toronto to Quebec City, and selected the private partner that will plan and build the line.
At a jubilant news conference in December, it was announced that the first leg of high-speed rail will be built in a 200-kilometre stretch between Montreal and Ottawa.
However, at the moment, Canadian high-speed rail is as much a project as it is a blank cheque.
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The price tag for the entire project is estimated at $60-billion to $90-billion, a wide range with few specifics provided.
The project still doesn’t have a publicly released business case with a final route, budget, detailed forecast of ridership, or an estimate of the likely fares. These are all details needed to judge whether the high-speed rail line is worth the cost.
Despite the serious lack of details, the announcement of progress will be cause for celebration for some. Canada is the last G7 country without high-speed rail, which in certain circles is a national embarrassment. And in this moment of nation-building, what better way is there to stitch the country together, both literally and figuratively?
A handout rendering from Alto of the proposed first high-speed rail line between Quebec City and Toronto that will start with a shorter segment linking Montreal and Ottawa.Supplied
Still, call me skeptical. I’m a big supporter of public transit and high-speed rail, but in this case, I’m not convinced this rail line is the highest priority for Canada.
On its own merits, the case for high-speed rail in Canada is not a slam-dunk winner. Economic benefits from faster passenger flows must be weighed against the billions of dollars in long-term subsidies that will be a drag on the economy. The proposed construction of only a handful of stations on the line provides limited opportunities for sparking transit-oriented development. The environmental benefits are contingent on riders switching from planes and cars in big numbers. And massive job creation during construction is not unique to high-speed rail, but would be a result of alternative major projects being built too.
More broadly, the country has other far more urgent areas in need of investment. Top of mind is closing the family doctor shortage, providing clean drinking water to all Indigenous communities, delivering desperately needed affordable housing, and increased spending on national defence. These are as much nation-building projects as the proposed high-speed rail line.
Even within the transportation sector, there are more impactful ways to invest $90-billion. The most urgent transportation problem that most Canadians face is getting around their own city, on gridlocked roads and underfunded urban transit systems. While initial forecasts estimate high-speed rail ridership at between 10.3 to 24 million trips per year by the 2050s, Canada’s urban transit systems together logged 1.6 billion passenger trips in 2024. The economic, social and environmental benefits of a $75-billion funding injection to operate, maintain and dramatically expand Canada’s urban transit systems far outweigh the benefits of inter-city high-speed rail – and would leave $15-billion to improve Via Rail’s unreliable train service in the Quebec City-Windsor corridor.
Like many Canadians, I love taking high-speed rail when travelling abroad. But comparisons with our G7 peers need to be made with caution. Yes, they all have high-speed rail, but they also generally have created more built-out urban transit systems, implemented tolls on their intercity highways which increase the rail lines’ competitiveness, and receive more tourists to boost rail ridership.
Leaving aside other national priorities, it’s critical that, if this high-speed rail project goes ahead, it avoids the pitfalls of recent light-rail projects in Canada and high-speed rail currently being built in California and Britain. Indeed, despite my reservations about the project overall, I’ve recently joined an academic advisory panel convened by Alto to put high-speed rail on the right track if the project proceeds.
But in a world of scarce resources, there are many worthy nation-building projects. This is a moment to think big. The key is to pick carefully and do the right hard things that will deliver the greatest benefit for Canadians.
Let’s make sure we have our priorities right before this runaway train leaves the station.