U.S. President Donald Trump arrives at the Joint Base Andrews military facility in Maryland on Wednesday.Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
John Ibbitson is a writer and journalist.
Anyone familiar with the Suez Crisis of 1956 will have noticed parallels to today’s American and Israeli war against Iran.
But the differences reveal more than the similarities.
Suez proved to the world that the British and French empires were reaching their end. But the Iran war does not yet offer the same proof of American decline.
It suggests, instead, that only America can bring America down.
The two crises in many ways reflect each other. The United States has attacked Iran, a major oil exporter, because of that country’s efforts to obtain a nuclear weapon. President Donald Trump says his administration seeks to secure Iran’s enriched uranium and topple the regime.
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Seventy years ago, Britain and France attacked Egypt because of that country’s efforts to exert control over the Suez Canal. They sought to regain control of the canal and to depose Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser.
Then, as now, imperial powers sought to humble a Middle Eastern opponent, while also hoping for regime change. Then, as now, the conflict involved control over the navigation of a major waterway linked to oil exports. Then it was the Suez Canal; today, it is the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel was a major player in 1956 and is allied with the United States in today’s Iran war. Russia also plays a major role. In 1956, Nikita Khrushchev, leader of the Soviet Union, vowed to protect Egypt and the Nasser government at all costs. Today, Russia offers its Iranian ally intelligence and other forms of tactical support.
However, Russia was distracted in 1956 by an uprising in Hungary, while Vladimir Putin’s forces today are bogged down in Ukraine.
During both crises, middle powers acted as intermediaries. In 1956, Lester Pearson, Canada’s foreign minister, proposed a ceasefire enforced by United Nations troops, who became known as peacekeepers; that effort later earned him the Nobel Peace Prize. In the Iran conflict, the Pakistani government has emerged as the key interlocutor, while Mr. Trump seeks the Peace Prize for himself.
In 1956, Britain and France were forced by the United States to cancel operations, revealing to the world that both imperial powers had lost the ability to act independently. The British and French empires were reaching their end.
In this June 18, 1956 file photo, Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser waves as he moves through the city of Port Said during a ceremony in which Egypt formally took over control of the Suez Canal from Britain.The Associated Press
In a social media post, Mr. Trump claimed that during his visit to China last week, President Xi Jinping referred to the United States as a “declining nation.” While it’s unclear whether Mr. Xi actually uttered those words, he did warn against China and the U.S. falling into the Thucydides Trap, in which an established hegemon goes to war against a rising new power that it perceives as a threat.
Is the Iran war of 2026 revealing to the world the decline of the American empire, à la Britain and France in 1956? Probably not. The United States suffered defeats in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan while retaining its global dominance. The Americans appear to have an almost limitless capacity to lose wars and still carry on.
And while some consider China a rising global power set to replace an America in decline, that seems unlikely. Apart from its internal challenges – including weak consumer demand, rising debt and restive minority populations – the Middle Kingdom is experiencing a demographic disaster resulting from an aging population, an ultra-low fertility rate and virtually no immigration. The country lost 1.4 million people in 2024 and 3.4 million in 2025. It is expected to lose 60 million people over the next decade, and about half its population by the end of the century. China is more likely an empire in decline than the United States.
That said, Mr. Trump in his second term has alienated friends and allies by raising tariffs and threatening the annexation of both Greenland and Canada. And now he appears willing to undermine the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance in retaliation for the ambivalence or outright opposition of many of its members toward the Iran war.
The United States has announced plans in recent days to draw down forces in both Germany and Poland, while suspending the Joint Board of Defence with Canada, a bilateral agreement that stretches back to 1940.
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Perhaps the high level of American debt, its political polarization and estrangement from allies under the Trump administration will leave it a weakened participant in a multipolar world in which India, Brazil and others rival the United States, China and Russia as global powers.
But it is also entirely possible that major potential challengers will remain in second place, unable to offer a sustained challenge to the massive economic and military might of the United States.
If the American empire ever does come to an end, that end will likely have been inflicted by America itself.
Editor’s note: A previous version of this article incorrectly stated that Britain and France attacked Egypt 60 years ago. Those efforts to regain control of the Suez Canal occurred 70 years ago.