Mail-in special ballots for the Oct. 19 referendum in Alberta.Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press
With the Oct. 19, 2026, referendum on the potential separation of Alberta, among other issues, fast approaching, several polls have consistently indicated that an estimated three-quarters of voters will choose to remain in Canada. Embedded within that assumption is the perception that immigrants, particularly visible minorities, who make up almost 30 per cent of the province’s population, will overwhelmingly vote against separation.
Conventional wisdom holds that immigrants are inherently grateful for the opportunities Canada has provided them, such that they feel obligated to pay automatic allegiance to the Confederation. That assumption may prove misleading. Anecdotal evidence within immigrant communities indicates a far more nuanced and divided reality. My interested observation as a member has revealed that support and opposition to separation is more evenly balanced than assumed.
To be sure, the immigrant vote may not be significant enough to determine the outcome of the referendum. However, should the result force another referendum focused solely on the question of independence, immigrants could emerge as a constituency neither side can afford to take for granted.
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The difficulty in assessing immigrant views is that newcomers, especially visible minorities, are unlikely to attend political gatherings or be seen publicly declaring their political position as there is a pervading fear that openly supporting either side could have professional, social or community consequences should their preferred side lose. By nature, immigrant communities often are too small to form a unified and cohesive front against any fallout. They often lack political influence to shield their members from potential backlash.
Most immigrants who have made Alberta their home came to Canada through various pathways such as economic immigration, family sponsorship, refugee and humanitarian programs, and study permits. Whatever pathway they applied for, they all persevered through demanding immigration processes to secure citizenship.
Understandably, they would be wary of any proposal that could force them to navigate legal uncertainties regarding citizenship and rights in a newly independent state.
There is also a persistent feeling that an independent Alberta will be anti-immigrant. That perception stems from statements from some prominent personalities in the independence movement who appear to envision a future independent Alberta rooted in a narrower and outdated conception of a national identity that considers people of certain backgrounds as outsiders only tolerated for the purposes of fulfilling certain temporary requirements of the “bona fide” citizens.
But, there is another side of the story.
Arguably, and purely on social considerations, many immigrants would not have chosen to settle in Alberta. Most would have preferred provinces where they feel multiculturalism is more prominent. They came to Alberta because this province offers better economic opportunities. Drawn particularly by employment in the energy sector, newcomers found pathways to economic advancement unavailable elsewhere.
Subsequently, that economic quest exposed them to longstanding grievances regarding Alberta’s place in Canada. They have been subjected to arguments that Alberta’s economic contributions are not adequately recognized by central Canada and that federal policies prioritize other provinces. For some, these arguments have resonated and they have become invested in protecting the economic engine that made their prosperity possible.
Consequently, some have begun to view separation as a means to safeguard their own future economic interests as they also hear of persuasive promises of greater control over resources, reduced taxation and economic policies that will ensure a better future for their families.
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As well, Alberta has also attracted socially conservative newcomers who have often found themselves at odds with aspects of Canada’s social values, particularly policies surrounding gender identity and sexual orientation. In this province, they find more opportunities to join religious and community networks that share their concerns and encourage them to openly express their traditional views without fear of ostracization.
Their views by no means represent all immigrants, but they help explain why some newcomers may feel greater cultural comfort in Alberta than elsewhere in the country. Across different faiths and ethnicities, social conservatism occasionally serves as a bridge that transcends doctrinal and cultural differences.
The temptation to portray immigrants as a monolithic pro-Confederation voting bloc, therefore, ignores the complexity of their experience, concerns, and aspirations. Consequently, in this referendum, both sides of the separation debate would be advised to acknowledge that newcomers are neither automatic defenders of the Confederation nor guaranteed supporters of the independence campaign. They are a diverse and evolving constituency whose political choices are formed by the same mixture of fears, hopes and interests that influence every voter.
This referendum may actually prove that the voices of Alberta’s immigrants may not be the loudest in the public square, but they could prove decisive in shaping the province’s political future.
Innocent Madawo is a political commentator based in Edmonton.