Why Pakistan is pushing for peace in the Iran war

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Farhan Bokhari is a foreign correspondent based in Islamabad who writes on Pakistan and the surrounding region.

Despite the U.S. and Iran having failed to secure a peace agreement in Islamabad over the weekend, Pakistan has been widely praised for its attempted role as the essential peacemaker, trying to end Donald Trump’s war in the Middle East.

For Pakistan, the world’s only Islamic country armed with nuclear weapons, the stakes are exceptionally high. A continuation of America’s war on Iran will intensify calls from pro-Iran Muslim nationalists for the country to position itself against the United States. Pakistan’s rising diplomatic profile, however, promises to stabilize its outlook. In brief, Pakistan, with its troubled past and emerging future, stands at a crossroad as never before.

Often criticized for backing militancy and radical Islam, Pakistan’s new-found peacemaker credibility has lifted the popular mood across the country, with Pakistanis proud of the work their government was doing to end the war.

As global markets on Monday reacted to the conflict’s continuation, Pakistan continued to press for an end to the war next door. After the Islamabad gathering, Mr. Trump’s promise to block Iran’s ports has raised the risk of the latter’s retaliation.

U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad fail to bring war to a decisive end

Iran could mine the Strait of Hormuz afresh, or take direct military action, resuming missile strikes on pro-U.S. Arab countries. Even Israel could be targeted, if the Jewish state chooses to resume its attacks on Iran.

Pakistan cannot remain immune from the turmoil in Iran, which will inevitably lead to fallout not just for Iran, but for its neighbourhood and the rest of the world. For example, Pakistan has already been hit hard by rising energy prices since the war began.

There are other potential consequences, too. In recent months, Pakistani expatriates in the Middle East sent home on average about US$2-billion a month. But war could imperil those remittances because investors will step back until the war ends, and expatriate workers from countries such as Pakistan could face layoffs in the coming weeks. Those transfers have become an essential lifeline for Pakistan’s fragile economy, which avoided a default on its foreign-debt repayments in 2023 and now remains solvent owing to a critical US$7-billion loan from the International Monetary Fund, which ends next year.

At the start of the war, against this background, Pakistan actively reached out to Iran and its opponents – notably the U.S. and Iran’s Arab neighbours – to lobby intensely for ending the dispute through negotiations. Weeks later, Pakistan has emerged as the principal peacenik. Just last week, the U.S. and Iran agreed to send high-profile delegations to Islamabad, making the highest-level face-to-face talks between the U.S. and Iran since the Islamic revolution of 1979 toppled the regime of the late shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.

U.S., Iran’s historic peace talks a promising step despite failure to agree on terms

With the danger of U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran resuming, Pakistan cannot afford to even partially abandon its role as the principal peacemaker in Iran’s neighbourhood, as that would sharply reduce Pakistan’s emerging profile across the western-dominated diplomatic world. The continuation of the war would also further the economic risks Pakistan faces.

Pakistan’s position among pro-U.S. countries was reinforced when Mr. Trump publicly praised the chief of Pakistan’s Defence Forces, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, referring to him as “my favourite field marshal.” Within Pakistan, Mr. Munir remains the most powerful decision-maker, even overshadowing the elected government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

For the moment, the crisis in the Middle East has meant that other problems in Pakistan are on the back burner. This includes its democratic gap. Imran Khan, a former prime minister, has been jailed on corruption charges that Mr. Khan alleges are politically motivated. Controversy over the 2024 elections remains; the leaders of Mr. Khan’s Pakistan Justice Movement claim the polls were widely rigged.

Not only that, but Pakistan faces considerable economic challenges, exacerbated by the war with Iran. Some analysts claim that almost 40 per cent of the country’s population – roughly 100 million people – live below the poverty line. On another key front, Pakistan received a widespread battering last summer from harsh rainfall, which triggered widespread concerns over climate change.

For Pakistan’s international partners, it is important to encourage its continuing role as a peacemaker between Iran, the U.S. and the rest of the world. But it is equally vital for the global community to step in to support Pakistan in tackling its increasingly profound internal challenges. A Pakistan preoccupied with mounting domestic crises will find itself distracted from making badly needed peace in its increasingly turbulent neighbourhood.