A man who returns to his village following the announcement of an initial ceasefire agreement between U.S. and Iran, flashes the victory sign as he stands on the rubble of his destroyed house in Nabatiyeh town, southern Lebanon, Tuesday.Hussein Malla/The Associated Press
Shlomo Ben-Ami, a former Israeli foreign minister, is the author of Prophets Without Honor: The 2000 Camp David Summit and the End of the Two-State Solution.
The ceasefire that was reportedly just agreed between the United States and Iran reflects U.S. President Donald Trump’s desperation to escape the quagmire that he created. Gone is the muddled array of objectives he touted in the war’s early days. All the Trump administration has reportedly secured is a promise to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which was open before the war, and plans for new negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, which was already under discussion. But even these pared-down goals might prove unattainable if Israel continues its fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Mr. Trump is already fed up with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It was Mr. Netanyahu who advised him in 2018 to abandon the nuclear deal then-president Barack Obama had reached with Iran three years earlier, putting Mr. Trump on the hook to deliver a better one.
Mr. Netanyahu also convinced Mr. Trump to launch the current war by touting a heady vision of the world’s two most powerful air forces quickly annihilating the Islamic Republic’s military and nuclear installations and toppling a regime that had long been a thorn in their sides. Now, Mr. Netanyahu is the last obstacle to a deal that would allow Mr. Trump to leave the resulting nightmare behind.
Deal to end war with U.S. requires Israel to withdraw from Lebanon, Iran says
Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu were never really on the same page. While Mr. Trump liked the idea of Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” he had no appetite for a prolonged military engagement. A nuclear agreement that he could portray as superior to Mr. Obama’s would always have been enough for him.
For Israel, however, eliminating the ballistic-missile threat emanating from Iran, as well as the country’s support for its proxy militias, has always been non-negotiable. The problem is that on these issues, Iran is utterly unwilling to compromise.
Lebanon, where Israel is attempting to decimate the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, is a point of particular contention. Israel has pledged to remain in southern Lebanon for as long as it takes to eliminate the threat, regardless of what the U.S. says. In open defiance of Mr. Trump, Israel launched an air strike on Beirut on Sunday, just as the U.S. and Iran were finalizing their ceasefire.
This move could have scuppered the deal. As Iran’s foreign ministry has made clear, an end to Israeli hostilities in Lebanon is a prerequisite to “any ceasefire and any final agreement.” If Israel continues to attack Lebanon, moreover, Iran will continue to retaliate against Israel.
Iran’s bravado will not deter Mr. Netanyahu. He knows that, while Iran’s strategic victory against two global military powers leaves the regime feeling invincible, its capacity to defend the country is limited. A renewed onslaught by Israel’s air force, including against civilian infrastructure, can only diminish the Islamic Republic’s position.
Opinion: How high a ransom is Trump paying Iran to escape from his own misbegotten war?
Mr. Trump, however, could be a problem for Israel. The Iranian quagmire has tanked his approval ratings, distracted from his self-aggrandizing spectacles, such as his 80th birthday celebration, and prevented him from claiming the quick “victory” he craves in Cuba. And he is willing to sacrifice core Israeli interests to get out of it.
By this logic, the Trump administration might be able to claim that its master deal-maker has again triumphed – but only if Israel falls into line. So desperate is Mr. Trump for Israel to get out of his way that he has begun frantically insulting Mr. Netanyahu. At this point, Mr. Trump appears to show IRGC officials more respect than he shows Mr. Netanyahu.
There is perhaps no better sign of the deterioration of the U.S.-Israel alliance than Mr. Trump’s insistence that he “calls the shots,” and Mr. Netanyahu has no choice but to submit, even if it means heeding an agreement that does not support Israel’s security interests. A relationship between two democracies of pioneering immigrants has devolved into a conspiracy between dishonest leaders, in which the lord chastises the vassal for stepping out of line.
Whatever happens next, Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu will not escape the judgment of history. Their war of deception in Iran amounts to the most monumental strategic defeat two military superpowers have ever suffered at the hands of an ailing, bankrupt regime. Iran has emerged from the war stronger than ever, as the master of the geopolitics of the postwar Middle East. The new ceasefire only compounds its strategic windfall: the U.S. President is now acting as a protector of Lebanon – and, by extension, Iran’s proxy there.
© Project Syndicate, 2026.