Israeli and American flags fly atop a building on March 5 in Tel Aviv.Erik Marmor/Getty Images
R. David Harden is a former USAID assistant administrator and mission director to the West Bank and Gaza, and senior adviser to president Barack Obama’s special envoy for Middle East peace.
Since the Hamas massacre on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has been fighting a brutal regional war on multiple fronts – and by many military measures, it has achieved surprising success. In Gaza, Israel shattered Hamas’s terror network. In its north, Hezbollah – long considered the most formidable non-state army in the Middle East – has been battered by sustained Israeli strikes that have decimated its leadership and arsenal, as Israeli forces advance into Lebanon. To the northeast, the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria in 2024 removed Iran’s key Arab ally and disrupted the land corridor linking Tehran to Hezbollah.
Then came the most consequential move of all: the start of the Iran war. On Feb. 28, the U.S. and Israel launched a sweeping and synchronized campaign targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure and the regime’s senior leadership. In their opening salvo, Iran’s Supreme Leader and several senior commanders were killed.
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Today, Israel’s intelligence services operate globally. Its air force dominates the regional skies. Its military and technological edge over its neighbours is overwhelming. Israel may now be operating from a position of strength in the region unmatched in the long arc of Jewish history.
And yet Israel is also caught in the junior partner’s paradox. American backing gives Israel enormous strategic confidence and power, but that also leaves Israel exposed to the volatile currents of American politics and the decisions of an unpredictable U.S. President.
That tension exploded into view last week when U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested that Washington had entered the conflict in part because Israel was already preparing to strike. While he later walked his remarks back, they ignited a long-running accusation in American politics, particularly within the MAGA-aligned “America First” wing of the Republican Party: that U.S. foreign policy is captive to Israeli priorities.
What makes this moment unusual is that the backlash on the right now intersects with a revolt on the left. Progressive Democrats, increasingly sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, have spent years challenging the bipartisan consensus behind U.S. support for Israel. The result is an unlikely convergence: MAGA isolationists and progressive activists – groups that agree on almost nothing – now find themselves aligned on this issue.
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Public opinion has begun to reflect that shift. For the first time in decades, American sympathy for Palestinians rivals – and in some polls, exceeds – sympathy for Israelis. Israel may be militarily ascendant across the Middle East, but in the arena that may ultimately matter most – American politics – the ground beneath it is eroding.
More broadly, the political foundation of U.S. support for Israel is no longer as stable as it once appeared. Even leading presidential contenders in both parties, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Vice-President JD Vance, have signaled varying degrees of discomfort with the traditional framework of U.S.–Israel policy. A once-reliable bipartisan consensus is fraying.
This shift matters because the Iran war’s endgame may be determined by how closely Israeli and American interests are intertwined. Israel’s leadership is likely to seek a decisive outcome – one that permanently degrades Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities and reshapes the regional balance of power. But for Washington, the priority may quickly become de-escalation – stabilizing energy markets, preventing a wider conflict, and avoiding another endless war. If those priorities diverge, Israel will find itself in an uncomfortable position: militarily capable, yet strategically constrained by the preferences of its indispensable ally.
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The risk is magnified by the particular volatility of American politics today. Donald Trump has demonstrated a willingness to reverse course abruptly, often with little regard for the diplomatic or economic consequences. A war that began with full American support could end with a sudden push from Washington for a ceasefire that falls far short of Israel’s strategic aims.
Canadians understand this dynamic perhaps better than anyone. Over the past year, Canadian leaders have seen how American policy can turn on a political dime, shaped less by long-term strategy than by domestic political pressures and the instincts of whoever occupies the Oval Office.
For Israel, however, the stakes are far higher. What Canada experiences in trade disputes and diplomatic tensions, Israel may confront in matters of war and peace. Israel may be operating from a position of unprecedented military strength in the Middle East, but that strength ultimately rests on a political foundation thousands of miles away – one that is becoming more fractured and far less predictable than at any point in recent decades.