It may provoke Trump, but Canada should cancel the purchase of F-35 fighter jets from the U.S.

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Michael Byers co-directs the Outer Space Institute.

As U.S. negotiators pushed for concessions on Ukrainian critical minerals last week, they reportedly threatened to cut off access to SpaceX’s Starlink communications satellites. It was a powerful threat, since Ukraine’s military depends on Starlink for front line communications and drone operations.

Here in North America, President Donald Trump is threatening to make Canada the 51st state, motivated – according to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau – by a desire for our critical minerals. The Canadian government should take the recent Ukrainian experience as a clear warning and cancel the planned purchase of F-35 fighter jets.

The problem, you see, is that Canada will never have full control over the heavily computerized planes. Lockheed Martin, the giant U.S. defence contractor that manufactures the F-35, has always refused to share the full “source code” with foreign customers, including close allies of the United States. The source code, comprised of 8 million or more lines of code, is the foundational programming that enables all of the aircraft’s functionality.

Since the source code is a tightly held secret, every training or combat mission flown by a Canadian F-35 will require a “mission data load” processed through specialized computing facilities in the United States. The load details the mission objectives and threat profiles and enables full use of the F-35’s advanced situational awareness capabilities.

Now, imagine that the U.S. President wishes to strong arm Canada into making concessions on critical minerals or perhaps transboundary diversions of fresh water. He could easily order that Canada be denied access to the U.S.-based computing facilities. Our F-35s would still be able to fly but their capabilities would be compromised.

If the United States wished to invade Canada, it could achieve air superiority – perhaps with just a few keyboard strokes.

The Canadian government already sees the need to be as independent as possible with the F-35s. Last November, it began investigating the possibility of a specialized airframe depot in Canada, to support the long-term maintenance and operation of the aircraft. Such a depot, it explained, would “help maintain sovereign capabilities in Canada.”

Yet some maintenance work would still have to occur outside of Canada. For example, the only two facilities able to maintain the stealth coatings on the F-35s are located in the United States and faraway Australia.

Then, just last month, the Canadian government announced plans for a “Future Fighter Lead-in Training Program” to “prepare and train pilots for the transition.” But during the years until that program becomes operational, our F-35 pilots will necessarily receive their specialized training in other countries. Even in the longer term, training packages and computer-based simulations will come from the United States.

There’s even a supply chain risk. Advanced fighter jets require constant maintenance and a regular supply of replacement parts, and the F-35 is such a complex aircraft that the full range of spare parts will only ever exist in the United States. Although some F-35 parts are produced in Canada, were access to the full range of parts ever denied, Canada’s F-35s would, one by one, become unflyable.

Fortunately, there’s a ready alternative to the F-35 that would not effectively be controlled by the United States. In the competition leading up to Canada’s decision to buy the F-35, the Swedish-made Saab Gripen E met all of the technical requirements.

The Gripen E is not as heavily computerized as the F-35. It also lacks stealth technology. But it’s relatively cheap and easy to maintain, able to take off and land on short Arctic runways, and can take care of itself in a dogfight.

What’s more, Saab has committed to building the planes in Canada.

Since that competition was held, Sweden has become a NATO state. Today, the Nordic country is an infinitely more reliable ally than the current version of the United States, which also just levied tariffs on Canada.

It’s true that cancelling the multi-billion-dollar F-35 purchase will annoy and perhaps provoke Mr. Trump. It could even put NORAD, the bilateral North American Aerospace Defence Command, at risk.

But if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had followed the same “do not provoke” logic, he would have kissed Mr. Trump’s feet and signed away the rights to Ukraine’s critical minerals.

Fighter jets are the sharp end of any modern military. No sovereign country would buy ones that a bully of a U.S. president could disable on a whim.