Michael Byers holds the Canada Research Chair in Global Politics and International Law at the University of British Columbia.
“If the United States invaded Greenland, how would other NATO states respond?”
My question was directed at diplomats from Norway, Sweden and Finland, who, like me, had travelled to the small Norwegian city of Bodo for a conference on Arctic issues.
The Swede stared at the ceiling. The Finn checked his phone. The Norwegian looked ready to deport me.
But while the question was awkward, European governments were necessarily struggling with it already as a result of U.S. President Donald Trump’s expressed intent to acquire Greenland “one way or another.”
For there is no way that the United States can acquire Greenland without using military force.
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Although the island is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, the Danish government could never sell it to another country because of the people who live there, most of whom are Inuit.
The principle of self-determination has been central to international law for more than a century. As U.S. president Woodrow Wilson declared in 1917, “No right anywhere exists to hand peoples from sovereignty to sovereignty as if they were property.”
It is likely that Greenlanders will, at some point, exercise self-determination by voting for independence from Denmark. They could then, conceivably, vote to join the United States.
But Greenlanders are, to put it politely, not interested in trading one overseas master for another.
In the absence of Danish and Greenlandic consent, any U.S. intervention in Greenland would be illegal. Even Mr. Trump’s veiled threats are illegal, as the United Nations Charter prohibits “the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state.”
An invasion would also trigger Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, the collective self-defence provision at the heart of the NATO alliance.
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Nobody expects Canada or European NATO states to use force to defend Greenland against the world’s most powerful military. Indeed, Denmark would likely order the soldiers stationed there to stand down in the face of a U.S. invasion.
But what, short of using force, could Canada and our European allies do if Mr. Trump ordered an invasion? Impose more tariffs on the United States? Call a meeting of the UN Security Council, where the U.S. holds a veto? Expel the U.S. from NATO?
It’s unlikely that Mr. Trump would be bothered by any of these measures. And in the absence of a strong and resolute response, he might be emboldened to invade Canada next, knowing that European states would not come to our defence.
A less-than-strong response would also embolden China with regard to Taiwan, and Russia with regard to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
Last week, The Washington Post reported that the White House budget office has been tasked with calculating the financial costs and benefits of acquiring Greenland. We are fast approaching what British philosopher Derek Parfit called a “hinge of history,” with the entire rule-based international order at stake.
Fortunately, there’s still time for pre-emptive measures.
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Canada and other NATO states should immediately send small contingents of military personnel to Greenland for “exercises” with Danish forces. Canada already has troops in Latvia, fulfilling a similar deterrence function against Russia.
They should also put a draft resolution before the United Nations General Assembly – one that reaffirms both the self-determination rights of Greenlanders and the prohibition of the threat or use of force in international affairs.
Such a resolution would receive extremely wide support, including from the states of the global South. It could not be blocked by the U.S., as there are no vetoes in the General Assembly. If Mr. Trump is contemplating an action that would make him an international pariah, he should feel some of that heat ahead of time.
Meanwhile, European NATO states should quietly indicate to U.S. military leaders that invading Greenland would result in the loss of their bases in Europe.
The U.S. military depends on its European bases for global mobility, including in support of missions in the Middle East. If U.S. military leaders understood that access to Europe is now on the table, they might finally start pushing back on Mr. Trump.
By overturning the international order, an invasion of Greenland would threaten everyone’s future. Let’s stop Mr. Trump now, before it’s too late.