A sign for the U.S.-Canada border at the Peace Arch border crossing in Blaine, Washington, on March 5.JASON REDMOND/AFP/Getty Images
Parag Khanna is the founder and CEO of AlphaGeo and the author of seven books, including Connectography and MOVE: Where People are Going for a Better Future.
Canada got its revenge on the United States in the Four Nations Face-Off last month, exhibiting focus and determination all the way through a clutch overtime goal to clinch the victory. Much as the first round-robin game was literally bruising for Canada, U.S. President Donald Trump’s first weeks in office brought a humiliating onslaught of anti-Canadian proclamations and measures. But when all was said and done, Canada took home the trophy. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had the last laugh with his tweet: “You can’t take our country – and you can’t take our game.”
Canada will need to apply the same relentless tenacity in the years ahead as it deals with an erratic White House. Even with an election looming, there shouldn’t be anything controversial about a national strategy to unite the country from west to east, work toward a more balanced North American community and promote Canada’s interests globally. It’s time to stop talking about the “Canadian Dream,” and actually build it.
National strategy has deductive and inductive elements. In my work with governments around the world, we focus on the structural changes in the global economy such as industrial policies, supply chains and commodities – and also look bottom-up at how a country can align its policy incentives, corporate investment, educational priorities and immigration targets to skate to where the puck is going. Election season or not, Canada has the professional competence to execute this kind of national master plan.
The past decade’s slide in the Canadian dollar has been propitious for exports, especially with high energy and minerals prices. But U.S. tariffs, which were introduced this week, and inflation threaten to eat away at margins for crude oil, wood and paper products, car parts, plastics and other sectors. A three-pronged strategy to stave off the recessionary effects of Mr. Trump’s policies would focus on fortifying commercial relationships with key U.S. states and businesses to keep southbound exports strong, heavily promoting exports across the Atlantic to Europe and across the Pacific to Asia, and boosting the production and consumption of domestically manufactured goods and services.
With respect to the U.S., anyone with a social-media account has seen one of the various infographics reminding us that at least two dozen American states have Canada as their top import or export partner. At the inter-regional level, Canadian exports have already significantly ticked up due to free-trade agreements across the oceans, and now is the time to be a steady supplier to countries in America’s crosshairs. And at home, Trump 2.0 should be sufficient motivation to accelerate the end-to-end production of cars, machinery, machine tools and plastics, rather than importing them from the U.S.
Quite frankly, Canada should have been doggedly pursuing this strategy all along in order to raise output and productivity, stimulate small-business formation and entrepreneurship and create reliable employment for the country’s rapidly growing population.
But where Canada can really invest in future-proofing itself is on the supply side of the equation: Infrastructure, housing, education and health care. Think, “Build, baby, build.” Canada’s glaring neglect of these areas is particularly puzzling given the migration surge the country has encouraged. But they must go hand-in-hand: More hospitals and more doctors; more tertiary educational institutions and more students; more affordable housing and more matching of migrants to labour market needs nationwide. This is how to graduate from the social Darwinism plaguing Western nations with deteriorating public services, toward a more egalitarian society that can be the envy of the world.
It must be said that even with Canada’s remarkable success at multiculturalism, all Western societies are crossing the mass-migration Rubicon, where assimilation cannot be taken for granted. This means that serious social spending will be needed to ensure that migrants become committed stakeholders – and then citizens – with a shared national and civic identity. Ensuring the country remains a true melting pot will pay massive dividends in social cohesion and shared purpose.
All of this will make Canadians more resourceful. Meanwhile, Canada can also do more with its resources. This is the “Drill, baby, drill” component of the strategy. The Keystone XL pipeline – first proposed in 2008 – is likely to get permitted by Mr. Trump, who recently wrote on social media he wanted it built “NOW!” The Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX) has boosted oil exports to China, and multiple LNG projects are also under development.
Then there are minerals – gold, copper, nickel, uranium, diamonds, iron ore, zinc, lithium, potash – all essential for the commodity and industrial sectors. Canada is also rich in rare-earth elements critical for the electronics and renewable-energy industries. Importantly, several Canadian companies are boosting extraction but also sustainable processing, meaning less dependence for Canada and Western allies on China, and also techniques that can be exported profitably to other rare-earth production hubs globally.
Furthermore, while accelerating climate change is causing billions of dollars worth of destruction annually, for Canada it is one of the drivers of the country’s emergence as an agricultural superpower. As much of the world is getting ravaged by droughts and floods, Canada’s production of grains, oilseeds, seafood and poultry are rising, making it a reliable food exporter to any corner of the globe.
One country that relies on Canada’s vast resources more than it realizes is America. Droughts and wildfires are now endemic across the U.S., and in due course massive hydrological projects may be needed to channel Canadian freshwater to the parched southern U.S.
Canada has already steadied its nerves, making light of Mr. Trump’s “51st state” rhetoric. But in a metaphorical sense, walls do need to come down in order for the continent to collectively compete with Asia. Why not nudge Mr. Trump in the direction of a functional North American Union (NAU) in which the U.S., Canada and Mexico deepen their collaboration in strategic areas such as energy, mineral self-sufficiency and the Arctic? The topographical engineering required to fortify Arctic bases, expand infrastructure and harness raw materials is a decades-long endeavour that is just getting under way – one that Canada should confidently lead on behalf of its allies. Naturally, an independent Greenland could be welcomed as a fourth member (something I proposed 15 years ago). This is how a progressive continentalism can emerge on mutually agreeable terms, rather than imposed from Washington.
The “Global Canada” doctrine needs to also focus on formal partnerships with like-minded technical powers such as Australia, Britain, Estonia, Singapore and others whose research universities, start-up companies and other magnets of talent should have seamless access to each other, potentially leading to standard-setting activities. Allowing the best and brightest to circulate with unfettered mobility across this techno-diplomatic network is itself a project that will require not just embassies but blockchain developers who can build the kind of secure and trusted framework by which traditional passports become a relic of the past. This will also allow for more efficient processing of the legions of Americans searching online for how to move to Canada.
Stable and trustworthy powers are essential in a neo-imperial system, creating avenues of pragmatic co-operation in the absence of meaningful multilateralism. Indeed, where empires seek to dominate, countries such as Canada, Britain, Germany and Japan can only shape.
Canadians know who they are, and the smartest and most confident countries don’t try to become like others, but rather better versions of themselves. Canada already has a strong global reputation, a brand that has it on the radar of investors, tech entrepreneurs and talented students. Like hockey, geopolitics is getting ugly – but it’s a game Canadians should know how to win.