Advocates for people suffering from long COVID-19 host an installation of 300 cots in front of the Washington Monument to represent the millions of people suffering from post-infectious disease, in May, 2023.Andrew Harnik/The Associated Press
No matter how hard we try to look away, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to cast a long shadow years after it began.
Not only are individuals still suffering the lingering health effects of infection, but economies are being battered.
A new report, “Addressing the Costs and Care for Long COVID,” estimates that medical costs for the treatment of long COVID patients will average US$11-billion annually across the 38 countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development over the next decade.
That translates into about 1 per cent of the combined health budgets of member countries.
But that’s just tip of the iceberg.
COVID-19 drove recent leap in preventable respiratory hospitalizations, report says
Long COVID will cost collective economies of OECD members (a grouping of European, North American and southern Asian countries) US$135-billion annually for that same time period, 2025 to 2035.
That’s the equivalent of a 0.1- to 0.2-per-cent decline in gross domestic product, a seemingly small amount, but one that stings when most countries are already experiencing stagnant economic growth, aging populations, and increasingly complex geopolitical challenges.
While these numbers are staggering, they are in line with the impact of other chronic illnesses. The report notes that long COVID has a health system and economic impact that is similar to stroke or multiple sclerosis, but has not sparked the same response.
The 84-page report, prepared by the health economics division of the OECD, states that “persistent post-infection symptoms are not only a health challenge but also a structural brake on economic output.”
While the pandemic has slowed considerably, the analysts note that the economic fallout “is substantial and mainly stems from the indirect costs from reduced productivity and participation in the workforce.”
The new OECD report is a rare attempt to quantify the impact of long COVID on both individuals and countries.
Moderna shares rise on $2.25-billion settlement over COVID-19 vaccine technology
The researchers note that it’s no small feat because few countries actually track sufferers. The report’s authors decried the patchy data collection in most countries, saying the true impacts of long COVID are likely underestimated.
An estimated 400 million people in the world have suffered from long COVID since the pandemic began.
The researchers remind us that, at the peak of the pandemic in 2021, about 5 per cent of the population suffered from long COVID – 75 million people in OECD countries alone – and it cost US$53-billion in direct health costs.
According to a 2023 report from Statistics Canada, about 3.5 million Canadians have suffered from long COVID – almost 1 in 5 who have been infected with coronavirus – but it’s unclear how many still have symptoms because patients are not tracked systematically.
While only a small percentage of those who develop long COVID have symptoms that linger long-term, the numbers are still substantial.
One reason data are lacking is that there is no common definition of long COVID.
According to the World Health Organization, long COVID, also known as post-COVID condition “occurs in individuals with a history of probable or confirmed SARS CoV-2 infection, usually three months from the onset of COVID-19 with symptoms and that last for at least two months and cannot be explained by an alternative diagnosis.” Yet, it can be difficult for individuals to get a long COVID diagnosis because it manifests in various ways, with more than 200 symptoms having been identified, including fatigue, aches and pains in muscles or joints, feeling breathless, headaches, and difficulty in thinking or concentrating (brain fog).
Research suggests that infection with SARS-CoV-2 can trigger an excessive immune response and chronic inflammation that is at the root of the health problems of long COVID sufferers. But there are many theories.
To conduct its research, the OECD surveyed 16 of its member countries, including Canada, and compared their data and outcomes.
Researchers concluded that Germany and the Netherlands have the best response to long COVID, largely because they have a broad suite of policies, including a long-term strategy, organized care pathways, specialized clinics, and training for health care workers to help identify and treat sufferers.
The authors of the report say that countries need to offer better disability supports and other social programs to help sufferers cope.
They say more investment in research, data collection, and care systems is required to lessen the impact of long COVID.
The key message here is that the costs of COVID-19 didn’t end with the acute phase of the pandemic. The coronavirus will continue to weigh on societies for years to come, and we ignore it at our peril.