The NDP leadership debate stage in Montreal in November, 2025. How the NDP fares is critical to the fortunes of the two main parties, writes Lawrence Martin.Christopher Katsarov/The Canadian Press
You’d never know it, given the scarcity of attention accorded the NDP leadership race, but there is so much riding on it.
There’s the question of whether the party can survive, whether the sagging left in Canada can keep it alive. There is, ipso facto, the question of whether Canada is reduced to an American-styled two-party system, with less choice at the ballot box.
How the NDP fares is critical to the fortunes of the two main parties. If its support continues to drift to the Liberals the way it did in the last election, Conservative Party chances of success are dimmed.
The NDP’s remarkable faceplant in the last campaign, during which it garnered a record low 6.4 per cent of the popular vote, had many causes but its primary mistake politically was entering into a partnership with the Liberal Party. This won the NDP some governing influence and it used that well enough to advance its social program priorities. But politically the alliance was a disaster, blurring the party’s identity, submerging it in the wokeism and identity politics of the Liberals as Justin Trudeau’s support tumbled.
The NDP lost its militant edge, its bark, its reputation for standing up against establishment forces. It became a party of puppy dogs.
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An opportunity for a rebuild presents itself. One positive is that the Liberals have moved so far into the mushy middle of the political spectrum that there’s a yawning gap to be filled on the left. Another is the likelihood that the new leader to be chosen this weekend will be an improvement over Jagmeet Singh, who never grew while in the job.
A third and most significant advantage is that a towering issue has emerged that is tailor made for the blue collar party: the artificial-intelligence upheaval.
AI represents the most significant economic transformation in generations, an unprecedented threat to jobs of every type. With AI, everything can be automated, said Wyatt Tessari L’Allié, head of the group Artificial Intelligence Governance and Safety Canada, in an interview. “There isn’t a single thing it isn’t going to disrupt in the coming years.”
Non-human forces taking over the economy from people’s control is a powerful argument for left-side activism and market regulation. How many jobs will digital systems and Elon Musk’s robots be taking over? Shouldn’t real people have a say on this?
Though Mr. Tessari L’Allié said New Democrats might well be natural leaders on the issue as it impacts employment, AI is moving so fast “nobody’s ready,” he said.
Avi Lewis, a leading leadership candidate, has proposed a moratorium on new AI data-centre construction, something Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has done in the U.S. “Corporate AI success,” Mr. Lewis charges, “is predicated on mass unemployment in Canada and around the world.”
Right-side populism has had a big run. AI opens the door to populism on the left.
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Zohran Mamdani’s successful run for New York City mayor provides a pathway as well. “There’s a large Mamdani-type base in Canada,” says EKOS pollster Frank Graves. “It is politically orphaned right now” but the NDP could capitalize on it, he added.
Since its collapse in the last election, the party has modestly improved its standing. It now polls around 10 per cent, but returning to its customary support level at near 20 per cent will be a daunting task.
The first priority is survival. Reclaiming its distinct identity on the left would help. Being Liberal-lite is a path to irrelevance. Mr. Lewis of Leap Manifesto fame is the most ideologically hardened candidate. No one will confuse him with a Liberal. He shows signs of being a mobilizer, leading the campaign in new membership sign-ups and fundraising.
But his eco-radicalism leaves him open to the extremist tag. He also has the major disadvantage of not holding a seat in Parliament. By contrast, Edmonton MP Heather McPherson, the other leading candidate, brings parliamentary experience and respect and a less risky platform. But if the party needs a jolt, she is less likely to provide it. And while Mr. Lewis speaks some French, she is more unilingual.
The NDP is still strong in the provinces, forming the governments in British Columbia and Manitoba. With the next election maybe as much as three years away, there is time to get back on track, especially if the AI revolution strengthens its appeal.
An NDP with teeth, one that has decoupled from the Liberals, has a good chance of recovery, one that is necessary for preventing the country being reduced to a two-party system and the polarization that comes with it.