Ontario Liberal Party leadership candidate Navdeep Bains prior to the Ontario Liberal leadership debate in Brampton, Ont, on Monday.Arlyn McAdorey/The Canadian Press
Navdeep Bains, who casual political observers might recall as the “superclusters” guy in the Justin Trudeau government, had his first debate-night opportunity to demonstrate why he is the front-runner to become the Ontario Liberal Party’s next leader. Mr. Bains is the preferred candidate among establishment Liberals; he’s raised the most money, he has the greatest name-recognition, and he’s backed by a well-established political machine equipped to sign up new party members to vote in November.
Mr. Bains had been operating a very front-runner-type campaign up until Monday night’s debate. His slogan was about promising to make Ontario “lead again,” with pledges to “build new infrastructure,” “expand childcare,” and “strengthen manufacturing” – the type of non-specific, empty declarations that were a feature of the Trudeau government’s promises-as-policy ethos. The first leadership debate provided a stage for Mr. Bains to offer more substance (and perhaps a little personal charisma) and to present bold, big ideas to convince the Ontario electorate to return to the OLP after banishing it to the political wilderness in 2018.
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Instead, when asked what he would do differently from the Ford government on health care, he replied: “I would do everything differently than the Ford government when it comes to health care,” and provided an answer that essentially amounted to “spend more.” (The Ford government is already spending record amounts on health care, without addressing its inherent inefficiencies.) When asked how he would make life more affordable for Ontarians, he lamented that life was unaffordable for Ontarians. And when asked if and when it is appropriate for Queen’s Park to step in and overrule a local institution, such as a school board, Mr. Bains told a story about his sixth-grade teacher, and then noted that he considers education “the greatest equalizer” in society.
There were two broad but contradictory themes on stage during Monday night’s Liberal leadership debate: Doug Ford has ruined Ontario, and we need to continue investing in, building, and nurturing what makes Ontario great. Only one candidate – housing advocate Eric Lombardi – offered a genuinely distinct vision for the province, arguing, for example, against a top-down vision of economic growth. “We can’t subsidize our way out of an affordability crisis,” he said. “Governments don’t create good jobs – they create the conditions for good jobs to be created, and we have to be able to distinguish the difference between those things.” Mr. Lombardi was also the only candidate to state the obvious during a segment where the four other candidates took turns pledging their commitment to keeping private operators out of our health care system: “The vast majority of medical operators in this province are privately run and OHIP-compensated.”
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But Mr. Lombardi did not demonstrate the natural charisma and on-stage confidence that, for example, Liberal policy wonk Dylan Marando boasted Monday night, nor does he already have a seat in the Ontario legislature, as MPPs Lee Fairclough and Stephanie Bowman touted as necessary to defeat Mr. Ford. But the most critical factor is that he is not Navdeep Bains, who evidently can offer candy floss as a response to specific policy questions, and still have the Liberal establishment behind him.
This is the third leadership race for the OLP since Mr. Ford’s PCs supplanted Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals in 2018, but it is the first one where its winner might finally have the premiership of the province within his or her grasp. That’s because Mr. Ford’s personal approval numbers have plummeted to their worst levels since he became Premier, coinciding with a small handful of spending scandals his government has so far been unable to shake. Indeed, the conditions are finally lining up for an election that could be the Liberals’ to lose (with the caveat that many things can change between now and 2030). But the candidates vying to lead the party are by-and-large shrugging at the opportunity. Most of the evening was occupied by vague platitudes, hollow declarations and cheap pablum.
In many ways Ontario has been on the same trajectory for 25 years, even though the party in charge switched over halfway through. We haven’t seen any significant changes to the ways our health care and education systems operate, any substantial regulatory changes in housing, or anything approaching a reorientation of how the government relates to, or invests in, industry.
Those vying to become leader of the OLP could be in a position to make those real changes in just a few years’ time. But so far, most are just touting the status quo, disguised as change. That, and a story about their grade-six teacher.