A large Canadian flag is passed through a crowd, as thousands streamed into Montreal from all over Canada on Oct. 27, 1995, to join Quebeckers rallying for national unity before the province's sovereignty referendum.Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press
Quebec’s 1995 sovereignty referendum resulted in a virtual tie, but had voters been asked to choose based on campaign posters alone, the “yes“ side would have won in a landslide.
In contrast to the “no” side’s bland branding, sovereigntist strategists came up with what was widely regarded as a wildly seductive marketing campaign that promised a world of new possibilities if Quebeckers voted to separate from Canada.
On most of the “yes” side’s posters, the letter O in “oui” (yes in French) was systematically replaced with an image that evoked a bright future for an independent Quebec.
On one, it was a daisy meant to remind those of the former 1960s flower-children generation who helped propel the Parti Québécois to power that their dream of a social-democratic paradise was within reach. On another, the O was replaced with a globe, to symbolize both an independent Quebec’s outward-looking foreign policy and its proud place on the world stage.
There was, however, one poster that did not quite fit with the dreamy theme. On it, the O was switched out with a Canadian loonie. It was there to reassure undecided voters worried about the economic risks of sovereignty that an independent Quebec would continue to use the Canadian dollar, even in the absence of an official monetary union with the rest of Canada.
“We are co-owners of the Canadian dollar, and we will keep it,” then PQ premier Jacques Parizeau insisted in early 1995. “So many countries try to have a common currency. We already have one, so why not keep it?”
Federalist leaders relentlessly attacked Mr. Parizeau’s plan. “Why would they seek to separate if, in fact, what they’re going to do is turn over some of their fundamental tools to another country?” then-federal-finance-minister Paul Martin said at the time, warning that a sovereign Quebec would have no say in the Bank of Canada’s setting of monetary policy.
Mr. Martin also suggested that a flight of capital would eventually force an independent Quebec to issue its own currency. He pointed to the rapid collapse of a monetary union between Czechia and Slovakia after the breakup of the former Czechoslovakia in 1993.
Current PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon no doubt sought to pre-empt a repetition of this debate by last week unveiling a plan to create a separate Quebec currency if his party wins both next year’s provincial election and a subsequent third sovereignty referendum.
Or maybe not. Though he voiced a strong personal preference for a separate Quebec currency, Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon said an independent committee of experts would ultimately determine the best monetary path for an independent Quebec to follow, and only after a 10-year transitional period during which the new country would keep the loonie.
PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon with his wife, Alexandra Tremblay, in Sherbrooke, Que., last week.Thomas Laberge/The Canadian Press
“The best decision, in the long term, is to have our own currency,” Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon said after releasing the second in a series of policy papers on sovereignty that the PQ is promising to issue before the next election. “Would you let your neighbour manage your bank account and your monthly finances? If the answer is yes, you have a serious problem.”
The PQ remains favoured to win the 2026 election as Premier François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec lurches toward collapse and the Quebec Liberal Party faces an internal investigation over potential spending violations by Leader Pablo Rodriguez’s campaign during the party’s recent leadership race. But that could change if Quebeckers begin to focus more on the economic risks of a PQ win.
The PQ suggests that, with its own currency, an independent Quebec would be insulated from the “Dutch disease“ that Canada suffered after the dollar soared to parity with the U.S. greenback when oil prices hit record highs in 2008, hurting Quebec’s manufacturing sector.
The Editorial Board: The rights of Quebeckers aren’t a political plaything
That may be true. But while Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon wants Quebeckers to believe that any transition would be an orderly one, the most likely scenario is a period of market turbulence and a devaluation of a Quebec currency – perhaps called the piastre, as the Canadian dollar is colloquially referred to in the province – vis-à-vis the U.S. greenback and euro.
What’s more, in Prime Minister Mark Carney, a former head of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, the PQ now faces a federalist rival with impeccable monetary-policy credentials. No one is better equipped to poke holes in the PQ plan.
As Bank of England governor, Mr. Carney waded into the 2014 Scottish referendum campaign to discredit the separatist side’s vow to continue use of the British pound. An independent Scotland, he insisted, would have to agree to strict deficit limits and surrender some control over economic policy to London. “A currency union is incompatible with sovereignty,” he said then.
Against Mr. Carney, Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon cannot win a currency debate. He best stick to promising daisies.