Poilievre is likely to survive an upcoming leadership review vote in January.JASON FRANSON/The Canadian Press
Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre did what was expected and what he had to do in the by-election in Battle River-Crowfoot on Monday. He not only won the super-safe rural Albertan riding, he won it by the giant margin that’s typical for Conservatives in that constituency, getting about 80 per cent of the vote.
The most trying test still awaits the wickedly smart, nerdy pugilist: the leadership review vote in January. The way things are shaping up, Mr. Poilievre is likely to win that by a large margin as well, meaning he will lead the Conservatives, who have lost four straight federal elections to the Liberals, in the next one.
Despite the gut punch he took in the last election, several factors suggest Mr. Poilievre has a lock on the leadership.
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For starters, there is no strong contender in the wings prepared to organize a campaign against him in the review vote. Previous leaders who have been toppled – Joe Clark, Preston Manning, Stockwell Day, Andrew Scheer, Erin O’Toole – all faced either behind-the-scenes or open efforts to unseat them. Since his election defeat, no sign of such a movement has materialized against Mr. Poilievre. He has strong support in his caucus and in the party’s populist base.
Opponents need an issue to rally around. But there is no burning issue in the Poilievre policy book that divides the party. His platform was not a source of discontent in the election, nor is it now. Though he is a conservative of the Reform Party brand, and though that brand has fared badly in the last decade, progressive elements in the party are not of sufficient strength – as Jean Charest discovered in the last leadership contest – to challenge Mr. Poilievre.
A threatening negative for Mr. Poilievre are opinion polls showing the Liberals with a wide lead and Mark Carney ahead of him as the preferred prime minister by no fewer than 27 points in the latest Nanos poll. Should the numbers hold or worsen in the coming months, that’s incentive for party members to show him the door.
But the gap is likely to shrink. The Liberal lead has been in large part due to the collapse of the NDP, which was a key and often overlooked factor in the Conservatives’ election loss. But the NDP’s numbers have started to recover and will likely rise some more when the party’s current leadership campaign gets rolling. Mr. Carney’s move to the political centre has opened up acreage on his left flank.
As most new prime ministers do, Mr. Carney has been enjoying a honeymoon with voters. But it is not going to last. His big selling point has been the perception he enjoys as being so well-suited to deal with U.S. President Donald Trump. But so far, few dividends have been apparent. Some other countries have made progress on trade negotiations with the mad king. Not the Canadian PM, at least not so far.
His personal relationship with Mr. Trump – personal relations being so important with this President – appears to have soured. The latest evidence is Mr. Carney being left off the list of NATO leaders invited to the White House for Ukraine war talks this week; this, even after Mr. Carney had complimented Mr. Trump on his efforts in trying to negotiate an end to the war. As it turned out, the absence wasn’t so bad because the meeting, like Mr. Trump’s Alaska suck-up summit with Vladimir Putin prior to it, turned into a nothingburger, lowlighted by European leaders shamelessly paying homage to the Oval Office narcissist.
Being back in the Commons in the fall, Mr. Poilievre will have an opportunity to exhibit his formidable communication skills and cut into the Carney lead. He is apparently prepared to soften his Mr. Nasty act and drop his predictable knee-jerk habit of blaming the federal government for every problem known to mankind. His chief grenade hurler, Jenni Byrne, has been sidelined from her top advisory role, something the rank and file in the party demanded. That will help.
The Conservative Party has changed leaders twice in the last few years. Not wanting to throw another skipper overboard after just one defeat is another factor working in Mr. Poilievre’s favour. But the primary one is that nobody of stature in the party has the courage to take him on.
Sticking with Mr. Poilievre is a hefty gamble. But it’s one that the Conservatives, given the lack of alternatives, are prepared to take.