Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets with B.C. Premier John Horgan after the First Ministers conference on Dec. 7, 2018 in Montreal.Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press
For weeks now, there have been increasing signs that British Columbians could be heading to the polls ahead of schedule.
Elections BC announced it has begun preparations for a snap election that include being able to handle a far greater number of mail-in ballots. Meantime, Premier John Horgan has asked members of his caucus who intends to run again. The edict has already incited nomination battles.
The Premier has helped fuel the speculation by suggesting his minority government has already far exceeded its life expectancy at more than three years, so an election would not be out of the ordinary. And besides, he added, an election was recently called in New Brunswick while another is scheduled to take place in Saskatchewan next month – so it’s not like the hallmark of our democracy stops just because of a silly old pandemic.
Except the vote in Saskatchewan is a fixed election and the other in New Brunswick was called after talks aimed at avoiding a trip to the polls until the fixed date in October 2022 collapsed between Premier Blaine Higgs’s Progressive Conservative party, the Liberals and the People’s Alliance. Also, the Conservatives' hold on power – the party has three fewer seats than the combined might of the Liberals, with 20, and the People’s Alliance, with three – was far more precarious than Mr. Horgan’s.
In other words, the two scenarios aren’t in any way comparable to the one in B.C., or even in Ottawa, where there is speculation Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is trying to manufacture an issue that would allow him to call an election and capitalize on favourable polling numbers.
It is easy to see why Mr. Horgan would be yearning to have a vote now.
Rarely has there been a B.C. Premier, in recent history, as popular as he is now. A recent survey by the Angus Reid Institute had his approval rating at 69 per cent – No. 1 in the country among his counterparts. And that is largely attributed to his government’s adept handling of the COVID-19 crisis.
The NDP’s political opposition, the BC Liberals, have been almost non-existent for the past several months, which is likely why they badly trail the New Democrats in recent polls. A recent survey by Angus Reid put them a staggering 19 points behind the governing party (48 per cent, versus 29 per cent). The Liberals are also in the throes of a major metamorphosis, with long-time MLAs being urged to retire to make room for a new generation of candidates. As a party, they are as vulnerable as they have been in decades.
Still, I think calling an election without an issue demanding the confidence of the people could be a grave miscalculation on the Premier’s part. Just as it would be for the Prime Minister.
The fact is, the Confidence and Supply Agreement that the BC NDP has with its governing partner, the Greens, is solid and not in any way in jeopardy of collapsing. That agreement calls for the NDP to govern until the scheduled election date in October of next year, unless it falls on a vote of confidence prior.
In other words, a snap election would be a gross betrayal of that document, which was key to the NDP getting into government in the first place.
But I think the greater worry is that calling an election in a province that is on the precipice of another explosion of the virus that could have profound repercussions for not only the general health of the population but the economy as well.
Why would a government take its eye off the only thing that matters now: managing and surviving this pandemic? Especially with schools back in session and with key members of the executive council – primarily Health Minister Adrian Dix and Education Minister Rob Fleming – not needing anything to distract them from the critical challenges in front of them.
And there is something else.
Under what pretense does Mr. Horgan go to Lieutenant-Governor Janet Austin and convince her there is a great need for a new mandate? She lives in B.C. She has seen this government in action and witnessed the relative ease with which it has governed in a minority situation. How could she justify being complicit in a move that is blatant political opportunism?
The public is always ready to recognize a job well done. But it never responds well to being taken advantage of. And that’s something Mr. Horgan needs to seriously consider. The PM too.
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