Russia's President Vladimir Putin appears to be treating the latest U.S. tariffs and sanctions as little more than bluster from Trump.KEVIN LAMARQUE/Reuters
Michael Bociurkiw is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Centre and the creator of the World Briefing newsletter on Substack.
Russian President Vladimir Putin must be having sleepless nights. In recent weeks, Ukrainian drones, launched from thousands of kilometres away, have pierced Russian airspace, triggering air defences in Moscow and other key regions. Airports have been forced to shut, including in Mr. Putin’s prized holiday destination of Sochi, where an oil depot was set ablaze. Meanwhile, once-loyal former Soviet republics, including Belarus, are flirting with more engagement with the West, as they’ve grown desperate to escape the economic wreckage wrought by Russia’s war and the resulting sanctions.
Now, it seems Mr. Putin has woken up to the realization that he may have overplayed his hand with U.S. President Donald Trump. After weeks of ignoring Mr. Trump’s threats of tariffs and demands to stop the bombardment of Ukrainian cities, the Kremlin leader is signalling he’s ready for a face-to-face with his American counterpart – likely to explore what comes next in the war.
But Mr. Putin won’t come to the table empty-handed. Mirroring India’s defiance, he appears to be treating the new round of U.S. tariffs and sanctions that take effect Friday as little more than bluster. Russian state media, functioning as Kremlin echo chambers, have mocked Mr. Trump mercilessly, portraying him as a flip-flopper who can’t be taken seriously.
If a summit does materialize (Turkey, trusted by all sides, seems a likely venue), expect the Kremlin to table its now-familiar maximalist demands: full annexation of the four Ukrainian oblasts it partially occupies, international recognition of Crimea, a cap on Ukraine’s military capabilities, abandonment of NATO aspirations, and no reparations. Still, some flexibility is possible. If Mr. Putin can return home claiming he halted NATO’s eastward expansion and kept Kyiv within Russia’s orbit, he may be willing to trade away some territory. With the U.S. more inclined to slap India and other big purchasers of Russian oil with extortionate tariffs, Mr. Putin may have to recalculate his bargaining chips.
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The biggest risk, however, falls on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. If he does enter the summit room, across from him will be a U.S. President desperate for a foreign-policy win – a deal he can tout on the campaign trail and perhaps use to bolster his bid for the Nobel Peace Prize. He’s especially hungry for redemption after the highly publicized but ultimately humiliating failure to secure denuclearization from North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, despite holding three summits and lavishing praise on the dictator. This time, Mr. Trump will want a headline-grabbing success.
That’s why the stakes for Ukraine could not be higher. And as Mr. Zelensky has already signalled, the devil will be in the details: “The key is to ensure they don’t deceive anyone in the details – neither us, nor the United States.”
If Mr. Putin shows no willingness to compromise – and he’d be foolish not to, given Russia’s massive battlefield losses and economic-downturn concerns – then Mr. Trump must take decisive action. That means arming Ukraine to the teeth, enacting the sweeping sanctions envisioned in a pending Senate bill, delivering more Patriot missile batteries and long-range weapons, pushing European allies to unfreeze almost €200-billion in Russian assets, and green-lighting direct weapons sales to Ukraine via a lend-lease agreement.
There’s also an unused tool in Washington’s foreign policy toolbox: leverage in the Gulf. It’s time to strong-arm the oil-rich emirates into rolling up the red carpet they’ve long extended to Russian oligarchs and tourists who’ve treated the desert kingdoms like their personal playground. Wealthy Russians are still scooping up luxury real estate in the UAE, undeterred. Mr. Trump could dangle a threat to downsize America’s military footprint in the region unless these governments shut down the safe havens – at least for now.
Squeezing these loopholes – even temporarily – would strike at the heart of Mr. Putin’s elites and inflict the kind of economic pain ordinary sanctions have yet to achieve.
Whatever unfolds at a bilateral or trilateral summit, Mr. Trump and his advisers would do well to recall the blunt warning once delivered to Richard Nixon by the respected Italian diplomat and former NATO secretary general Manlio Brosio, who described Russian negotiators as pathological liars. Nixon came to understand that the Russians could be managed – but only when deals served their interests, and only when breaking them carried a clear and painful price.
That’s exactly what Ukraine must demand at any future summit: the U.S. as a credible guarantor of any peace deal. Mr. Putin must leave the table with no room for misinterpretation, knowing that any breach will trigger swift, punishing consequences – not just for Russia, but for its sanction-busting allies as well.
There is no other way.