PQ’s new blueprint for sovereignty sets the stage for a high-stakes election campaign

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Since the Parti Québécois first came to power almost 50 years ago, in the fall of 1976, countless white papers and reports prepared by PQ governments have examined every imaginable aspect of separation, including dividing up the federal debt, establishing the borders of the new country and determining whether it would issue its own currency.

None has been as detailed, or as presumptuous, as the 524-page Livre bleu sur l’indépendance du Québec that the PQ released this week on the eve of Quebec’s Fête nationale, the holiday traditionally known as Saint-Jean-Baptiste Day, in honour of the formerly religion-obsessed province’s patron saint. The document lays out in 21 chapters – a 22^nd chapter on Quebec-Indigenous relations was left blank pending consultation with First Nations – the why, how and when of sovereignty in advance of a provincial election.

The PQ has promised to hold another referendum on sovereignty within its mandate if it wins the Oct. 5 election. The Livre bleu (or Blue Book) serves as both a manifesto and blueprint for the pre- and post-referendum periods up to a declaration of independence that would come no more than two years after a Yes vote, whether or not a formal divorce settlement with the rest of Canada has been reached.

Under the “why” of sovereignty, the Livre bleu takes a thinly veiled swipe at Prime Minister Mark Carney’s January speech at the Citadelle in Quebec City, in which he described the Plains of Abraham, the site of the 1759 battle that hastened the fall of New France, as “the place where Canada began to make its founding choice of accommodation over assimilation, of partnership over domination, of building together over pulling apart.”

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The Livre bleu seeks to set the record straight: “The current political situation of the Québécois people is indeed the direct product of a military conquest, and all of our collective action since then has essentially been aimed at mitigating its effects.”

The document addresses the question of the potential partitioning of an independent Quebec by evoking the international-law principle of uti possidetis juris (under which newly created states maintain their existing borders) to discredit the argument that majority-anglophone regions or First Nations communities could remain part of Canada.

But relying on uti possidetis juris also means that an independent Quebec would have to renounce any claim to parts of Labrador that were awarded to Newfoundland in 1927. The Livre bleu claims an independent Quebec would instead seek financial compensation for this “unfair” and “illogical” decision by Britain’s Judicial Committee of the Privy Council as part of its negotiations with Ottawa to divide up federal assets and liabilities in Quebec.

The PQ document claims an independent Quebec could save up to $16-billion a year – up from a previous estimate of $11-billion – by eliminating overlap with Ottawa and slashing public-service jobs in what it promises would be “the biggest exercise in bureaucracy reduction ever seen.” Those savings would more than offset the almost $14-billion in equalization payments Quebec currently gets from Ottawa, which, the document notes, are paid for out of Quebeckers’ federal taxes and federal borrowing.

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Federalists will find plenty to pick at in the 524-page document. But the Livre bleu seeks to mobilize sovereigntists and provide PQ candidates with talking points. With its publication, PQ chief Paul St-Pierre Plamondon also hopes to establish himself as a level-headed leader who thinks things through, and counter recent media and opposition depictions of him as impulsive and unprepared to govern.

Indeed, persuading Quebeckers he is the best choice to lead the province, much less a country, remains his biggest challenge as newly minted Coalition Avenir Québec Premier Christine Fréchette impresses voters with her grace under fire and no-drama governance. Polls point to a tightening race between the PQ and CAQ in francophone Quebec, with Liberal Leader Charles Milliard struggling to connect with French-speaking voters.

Ms. Fréchette is still hampered by the CAQ’s unpopular record in office and the challenge of finding suitable candidates to replace the more than 30 CAQ incumbents who are fleeing the ship, er, retiring. She also faces the risk that the CAQ could fracture altogether as the sovereignty debate retakes centre stage in Quebec politics.

CAQ Culture Minister Mathieu Lacombe broke ranks last month by saying he would vote “Yes” in a future sovereignty referendum, predicting that “certain of [his CAQ] colleagues” would, too. Mr. Lacombe announced this week that he would not seek re-election in his Western Quebec riding of Papineau, a longtime federalist stronghold.

The election will determine whether the PQ’s Livre bleu opens a new chapter in Quebec politics, or just gathers dust alongside all those previous sovereignty manifestos.

Because of that, this campaign will matter much more than most.