People enjoy sunset view of Taipei 101 on Elephant Mountain in Taipei, om April 17.Ann Wang/Reuters
Martin Green is a former senior intelligence and national security official.
Canada needs friends, and our brand requires polishing. Our relations with the United States, China, India, Russia and too many others are at a low point. Taiwan is one ready-made, like-minded candidate for the rebuilding of our international partnerships and reputation – one piece in puzzling times.
In 1960, the most important foreign policy issue raised during the famous John F. Kennedy vs. Richard Nixon televised debates was whether or not the U.S. would protect Taiwan’s Kinmen and other outlying islands from communist China. Previously, the U.S. had excluded the islands in order to avoid provoking the Communist Party of China (CCP) and to keep a manageable level of engagement in an already complicated neighbourhood.
Sixty-five years later, this “strategic ambiguity” persists, and the risk of conflict has escalated. As 2025 began, Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated that “no one can stop” China’s reunification with Taiwan. Admiral Samuel Paparo, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander, recently said that Beijing’s increasing military activities around Taiwan are “not exercises; they are rehearsals.” In tandem, President Donald Trump’s peripatetic droppings and predations show an administration that is gleefully abandoning its alliances, values and global leadership. With Vladimir Putin’s ongoing thuggery (which will not end with a “ceasefire” in Ukraine), a growing China-Russia partnership and an increasing number of authoritarian regimes flexing their muscles, the global schoolyard is replete with worrisome bullies. These global trends are existentially threatening for Taiwan, and increasingly so for Canada.
Over the past several years, I have had many productive exchanges with senior Taiwanese officials on foreign, defence, national security and intelligence matters. They see Canada as a priority strategic partner. Last fall, I had the privilege of being hosted in Taipei and on the main Kinmen Island with a senior-level Canadian delegation led by Richard Fadden (a former national security adviser to Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau).
Taiwan has a vibrant and determined democracy. With its multilingual, dedicated and competent public service, it currently is ranked as the top democracy in Asia and the 12th globally by the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index. This was embodied by Vice-President Hsiao Bi-Khim, whose preparation, eloquence, knowledge of Canada and strategic approach impressed our delegation.
Taiwan is now also among the top 20 economies in the world; its crown jewels are the production of semiconductors, and a highly skilled (albeit aging) work force. Chips and people have already positioned Taiwan as a world leader in AI. Their recent US$100-billion investment in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing deserves greater notice from Canada.
My biggest takeaway from my visit, however, was Taiwan’s position at the “global centre of gravity,” where the potential for a conflict with China is real and palpable. The global ramifications of such a conflict would dwarf those of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It would very likely be a protracted affair involving a great loss of blood and treasure. China has played the long game and for decades has attempted to slowly grind Taiwan into submission through hostile economic and diplomatic coercion, lawfare, foreign interference, cyberattacks and menacing “military exercises.” It is clear that Taiwan overwhelmingly does not want “one country – two systems,” as China suggests. The fate of Hong Kong under the CCP has reinforced their view.
Canada has many of the foundational pieces in place to bolster a stronger strategic partnership with Taiwan. We have exceptional but lean representation in our de facto embassy in Taiwan and we have trade and technology agreements that we need to better exploit. Canada also has a decades-tardy but welcome Indo-Pacific Strategy that we urgently need to realize and build on. This has been a no-brainer for many years but is now essential given our need to diversify. It has been more than 25 years since Canada had a minister of the Crown visit Taiwan. This, and our sporadic fairweather presence across the Indo-Pacific, should be corrected in 2025 and sustained going forward.
Out of self-interest and principle, Canada should support Taiwan’s deterrence and resilience against the CCP. The Taiwanese have applauded our “Freedom of Navigation” defence operations in the Taiwan Strait. But more is required. We need to better partner with Taiwan in key international fora, and on trade agreements and energy security. As Canada looks to resuscitating and strengthening our neglected Armed Forces and defence industrial base – 2 per cent of GDP on defence spending should only be a start – we must better leverage our Indo-Pacific Strategy, our Five Eyes alliance and our extant relations with other countries like Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines and others. These should be key inputs to recalibrating our foreign, defence, national security and intelligence priorities in the Indo-Pacific.
Such actions would not derogate from a “One China Policy,” nor from Canada’s desire for stronger economic ties with China under the right conditions. Although, I would posit that we need an open conversation about what a “One China Policy” really means substantively to Canada in today’s world. I would also suggest that while the CCP is sure to criticize stronger Canada-Taiwan relations, it might also have them take Canada somewhat more seriously as a real Indo-Pacific player and trading partner. Over the years, Canada appears to have believed that by adopting a low profile with Taiwan and other regional partners, the CCP would welcome us to their markets. We have been sorely mistaken.
Taiwan relies primarily and necessarily on the U.S. for its security. The likely reason the CCP has not been even more hostile toward Taiwan is to avert a full-scale conflict with the U.S. and its allies. Interestingly, the first Trump presidency and subsequent Biden administration adopted a remarkable continuity of positions in support of Taiwan. Hopefully the 47th President will continue this bipartisan approach. Upping Canada’s support of Taiwan is not to appease the U.S., but if it does underscore that Canada is a serious and committed Indo-Pacific player, and shows that we are burden-sharing and understand that regional security requires allies, then all the better.
Strengthening the Taiwan-Canada relationship is one piece of a puzzle that will require consistent and non-partisan efforts.