Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s caucus has lost five MPs since last year’s federal election.Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press
I’m starting to believe that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is the subject of an elaborate, prolonged hazing ritual. The frat house in this scenario might have better decorum and nicer furniture than those found on college campuses, but the initiation process is the same: subject the pledge to a succession of humiliating rituals to see if and how long he can endure. For Mr. Poilievre, the cascade of indignities has been going on for more than a year.
This week, the man who once seemed a lock to become Canada’s next prime minister lost his fifth MP since last year’s election. Four of those MPs crossed the floor to join the Liberal Party, and the fifth – Quebec MP Richard Martel – has just been selected by Prime Minister Mark Carney to join the Senate, which means he is leaving the Conservative caucus. Mr. Poilievre renamed Mr. Martel as shadow minister for sport just one week ago.
This particular decision is a smart one by Mr. Carney. It shrinks the Conservative caucus by one, of course, but it also means a by-election for the riding of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, which the Tories held by just three percentage points in the last election. There were just 37 votes separating the Bloc’s second-place ranking from the Liberals’ third in that election, and if the results of the redo in Terrebonne are any indication, Mr. Carney has a good shot at fortifying his majority with another seat in Quebec. Mr. Poilievre, meanwhile, is forced to exit the premises to the sound of a sad trombone, watching from the outside as his own plans are enacted by the Prime Minister.
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The hazing of the Conservative Leader isn’t only coming from outside of caucus, however. Last week, his leadership was tested by his MP for Bowmanville, Jamil Jivani, who has a history of making trouble for his bosses. Earlier this year, Mr. Jivani went on an independent trip to the U.S. to talk trade, after which he told Breitbart News that Canadians are “shooting ourselves in the foot” by throwing an anti-America “hissy-fit.” Mr. Poilievre was subsequently forced to come out and distance himself from the comments. Then last week, Mr. Jivani pounced on a photo taken of the Prime Minister at a Pride event shaking hands with a man in kink gear, calling the scene “shameful” and later doubling-down by calling out wider “Liberal degeneracy.”
Mr. Poilievre doesn’t need this. What he needs is for his MPs to stay on message – to poke at Mr. Carney’s vulnerabilities, instead of unintentionally reinforcing the ones that plague his own party. Indeed, Mr. Jivani’s bozo eruptions reaffirm the perception that Conservatives are reluctant to blame U.S. President Donald Trump for our tariff-induced woes, and that the party is full of prudish killjoys who will freak out over a handshake at a Pride parade.
But worse than that for Mr. Poilievre: it all makes him look weak. Former prime minister Stephen Harper would have never tolerated these sorts of rogue, dumb outbursts in his caucus, and the fact that Mr. Poilievre is forced to look the other way speaks to the tenuous hold he has on his job. Yes, more than 87 per cent of delegates supported him in a leadership review back in January. But that was two floor-crossers, one MP’s jump to the Senate, and one Liberal-majority lock ago. Mr. Poilievre seems to be holding on for dear life, and the humiliations just keep coming.
Mr. Poilievre gestures during the Calgary Stampede parade in Calgary on July 3.Todd Korol/Reuters
Some are even self-inflicted. During a speech at a Stampede barbecue in Calgary this past weekend, wearing a white cowboy outfit that was surely an initiation exercise, Mr. Poilievre took a few moments to lash out at “Liberal lobbyists from out east” while congratulating B.C. Conservative Party Leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay on her win. It was clearly an attack on Kory Teneycke, who managed the campaign for Ms. Findlay’s rival, Caroline Elliott, and who was outwardly critical of Mr. Poilievre’s strategy and performance during the federal election campaign. Perhaps it was necessary for Mr. Poilievre’s own ego to publicly land the jab against Mr. Teneycke, but from the outside it looked like loser talk from a guy being forced to run through the girls’ dorm wearing only women’s underwear. Or a white cowboy getup.
There is nothing more damaging to a political leader’s image, and his prospects, than being perceived as weak. Weakness reaffirms your critics’ worst opinions. Weakness makes your own team question your capabilities. Weakness creates an opportunity for your rivals to pounce.
Weakness is losing your MPs, losing control of your caucus, and losing the plot. If this continues, Mr. Poilievre will be out on the frat-house lawn in nothing but his underwear.