Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leaves his campaign bus to meet with mayors in Quebec City on Thursday. Quebeckers go to the polls for a general election on Oct. 5.Jacques Boissinot/The Canadian Press
With two televised debates down, and one to go, Quebec’s party leaders are running out of chances to move the needle in an election campaign that has lacked any sparkle.
Despite the stakes, with the poll-leading Parti Québécois promising a third sovereignty referendum if it wins on Oct. 5, the campaign has unfolded without the passionate pleas for and against Quebec separation that you might expect.
PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon only talks about sovereignty when he is forced – by rivals, reporters or debate hosts – to defend his plans. Even then, it is to reassure voters there will be no referendum until Donald Trump leaves office. He quickly moves on.
Most of the time, PSPP, as he is known, hammers away at the Coalition Avenir Québec’s blunders during its eight years in power, insisting the province cannot afford “12 years of the CAQ.” With more than 60 per cent of voters demanding a change in government, the PQ Leader boasts of having the “best economic team” to manage through turbulent times.
Coalition Avenir Québec Leader Christine Fréchette arrives at an election debate in Montreal on Wednesday.Christopher Katsarov/The Canadian Press
CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette, who has played down her party to the point of removing its name entirely from her election signs and TV ads, keeps reminding Quebeckers that she is not François Legault, the unpopular CAQ premier she replaced in April. She has won back many voters who had fled the CAQ during Mr. Legault’s final months at the helm. Older Quebeckers have especially warmed to her gracious, no-nonsense style. But her early campaign momentum has waned as the race enters its final stretch.
Ms. Fréchette’s uneven performance during this week’s debates will weigh on her party’s fortunes. She was a wallflower at times during Tuesday’s debate on Quebecor’s TVA network, despite being the principal target of the other leaders. She went on the offensive in Wednesday’s debate on Bell Media’s Noovo network, though not always successfully.
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While Ms. Fréchette is more popular than her party, her rivals have seized on her refusal to say whether she would vote Yes or No in a future referendum to accuse her of hiding her true convictions. She is a former PQ staffer, and she has admitted voting Yes in 1995, but she quit the PQ in 2013 over its proposed Charter of Quebec Values and now calls herself an “autonomist.”
Except, as Quebec Liberal Party Leader Charles Millilard repeats, autonomism would not be on the ballot in a future referendum. The choice would be a binary one between separation and remaining a part of Canada. During the TVA debate, the Liberal Leader called himself “the only federalist in the room” and insisted that “federalists need to stick together” to stop the PQ.
Unfortunately for him, francophone federalists still favour the CAQ over the Liberals. Mr. Milliard has struggled to gain traction in French-speaking Quebec.
One reason for that has been his refusal to say whether he would renew the CAQ government’s use of the Canadian Constitution’s notwithstanding clause to shield language legislation from court challenges. The issue has divided Liberals, with the bulk of the party’s MNAs representing anglophone ridings fiercely opposed to renewing the clause to suspend fundamental rights.
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A fragmented federalist vote helps the PQ. While voter opposition to a third referendum hovers at around 70 per cent, the PQ retains a strong enough lead among francophone voters to win at least a minority government. To win a majority, it needs more federalists to switch to the Liberals in ridings where the PQ and CAQ are in close races. Hence, PSPP’s efforts to praise Mr. Milliard during both debates.
The PQ also needs to peel off voters from the Quebec Conservative Party, whose support is concentrated in the Quebec City area, where it is the PQ’s chief rival. Elsewhere in the province, Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives threaten to play spoiler at the PQ’s expense. Hence, PSPP often sounds like a right-wing populist, railing against cancel culture and out-of-control immigration that he says causes overcrowding in Quebec schools.
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Such talk has all but erased the once left-leaning PQ’s chances of winning back its previous Montreal strongholds from the progressive Québec Solidaire. QS’s signature promises – a wealth tax and publicly-run grocery stores – will keep the party base on board.
With one more TV debate before advanced polls open on Sept. 27, the window is closing for party leaders to sway undecided voters and the more than 40 per cent of electors who say they could change their mind.
The potential for anything resembling a wave election – a Quebec specialty – seems slim this time around. Quebeckers are more politically divided than ever, putting more ridings than ever in play. All that makes the outcome of this race especially unpredictable.