Ontario Premier Doug Ford may be the most popular Conservative leader in the country, having won three straight majority governments.Carlos Osorio/The Canadian Press
On the evening of the last federal election, as it became clear the Conservatives would return to Opposition yet again, a CBC News television reporter caught up with re-elected Tory candidate Jamil Jivani.
Over the next several minutes, those watching were likely shocked by what they were hearing. Far from the usual bromides about the voters having spoken and taking time to analyze what went wrong with the party’s campaign, the Conservative MP for Bowmanville-Oshawa North went off.
On Ontario Premier Doug Ford.
He accused the Premier and proxies such as key political advisor, Kory Teneycke, of undermining the Conservative campaign with constant criticisms about how it was being run. He said Mr. Ford had surrounded himself with “goons” and lambasted him for fraternizing with the enemy, including Liberal Leader Mark Carney.
Reports of an ugly rift between the Ontario Conservatives and their federal cousins were no longer the stuff of rumour and innuendo. It was now out in the open. As it turns out, the bad blood still boils.
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Mr. Jivani recently shared a stage with Derek Fildebrandt, publisher of the conservative news outlet the Western Standard. Mr. Jivani picked up where he left off on election night, criticizing Mr. Ford for his “theatrics” and “stunts.” He suggested the Ontario Premier and people in his administration didn’t have an ”ideology” beyond staying in power.
It’s clear Mr. Jivani doesn’t like Mr. Ford. And he would not be making the kinds of statements he did on election night, and more recently, if they weren’t approved by the boss, Pierre Poilievre.
It’s difficult to say whether Mr. Ford’s and Mr. Teneycke’s criticism of the federal Conservative campaign had any impact on the election’s outcome. (It likely didn’t help.) Nor does it aid Mr. Poilievre to have the spectre of the Ontario Premier looming over him as he gets set to take up his position as Opposition Leader when Parliament resumes next week.
Mr. Poilievre has his hands full trying to provide his party with some renewed purpose, after it appeared for so long that the Conservatives were a shoo-in to form government. Polls had the Tories up by double-digits over the Liberals, only to have their visions of glory upended by Justin Trudeau’s resignation and the emergence of Mark Carney.
It has put immense pressure on Mr. Poilievre, who lost his own seat on election night and had to rely on a fellow Conservative to resign his in Alberta so the Leader could (successfully) run in a by-election to get back into the House of Commons.
The federal Conservative Leader’s biggest weakness, meantime, is Mr. Ford’s greatest strength: charisma. Many people don’t like Mr. Poilievre and his often smug, arrogant ways, while Mr. Ford has a populist’s touch that has helped him lead his party to three straight majority governments.
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He is surely the most popular conservative politician in Canada. Yes, he has a catalogue full of gaffes and missteps and horribly bone-headed decisions, but the Ontario public has largely overlooked them in the voting booth.
Normally, that would put someone riding that level of approval in a position to imagine grander prizes.
Mr. Ford would appear to be a natural to take over the leadership of the federal Conservatives. After three straight majorities, it would be the obvious next move if he wasn’t tired of politics, which he shows no signs of being. But there is an impediment to this notion and it’s a rather significant one: il ne parle pas français.
Nor does Mr. Ford strike me as someone who would be willing to put in the long hours to become sufficiently proficient in the language to survive a French leaders’ debate or campaign in the streets of la belle province.
So, if Mr. Ford isn’t eyeing Mr. Poilievre’s job, what would the federal leader have to fear? Well, Mr. Ford wields a tremendous amount of influence in conservative circles. Sure, he has his enemies, but he has far more friends and supporters. Federal Conservatives have a tough enough time as it is trying to win a general election without having an internecine war undermining the opportunity to work toward a common cause.
Yet, the sense I get is the animosity between the Ford and Poilievre camps runs deep. I don’t see either man willing to extend an olive branch in an effort to repair relations.
And if that’s the case, I would say Mr. Poilievre has far more to lose than Mr. Ford if this conflict drags on. He’ll soon face a leadership review and maybe another election. It would be far better for the Conservative Leader to have someone of Mr. Ford’s stature in his corner fighting for him.
Right now, I can’t imagine that happening. And that’s not good for Mr. Poilievre.