People block a street during a protest in Tehran, Iran, on Friday.MAHSA/AFP/Getty Images
Dennis Horak was Canada’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Yemen from 2015 to 2018 and chargé d’affaires in Iran from 2009 to 2012.
The demonstrations currently rocking Iran are among the largest the Islamic Republic has ever faced. The spark was the rapid collapse of Iran’s currency amid skyrocketing inflation, but coupled with a crippling water crisis and decades of economic mismanagement and corruption, ordinary Iranians seem to have hit a breaking point.
The Islamic Republic has faced similar challenges in the past, most notably in 2022, following the death of Mahsa Amini and the Women, Life, Freedom protests that swept the country, as well as after the disputed 2009 presidential elections that led to the emergence of the pro-democracy Green Movement. In each instance, millions took to the streets demanding change; in each instance, the regime was able to brutally reassert control.
As in 2022 and in 2009, supporters of today’s protesters confidently insist that this time is different – that these demonstrations will finally bring sweeping change to Iran. But I vividly remember that, when I arrived in Tehran only weeks after the initial Green Movement protests were crushed in 2009, many Iranians were equally sure that a corner had been turned and that positive change was inevitable. Nearly 17 years later, the same demands remain unfulfilled.
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It is true, however, that these protests do look and feel different, not only in their intensity but in their scope. The context has certainly changed.
The catalyst for today’s unrest – economic hardship – has broader resonance across the full spectrum of Iranian society than other sparks in the past. While a stolen election and women’s rights have weight, nothing touches a population, whatever their affiliations, like an inability to put food on the table. A regime that fails to meet that basic threshold puts itself at risk. That’s where Iran is now.
Iran’s weakened international position is also a new factor. The loss of its regional proxies in the war with Israel, coupled with the country’s inability to defend its capital city and nuclear facilities from attack, challenged the regime’s image of invincibility. Billions have been spent over the years building up this regional network with direct payments, and billions more forfeited by sanctions in the regime’s stubborn pursuit of its nuclear program. In the end, for many Iranians, these ideologically driven misadventures siphoned off resources that would have been better spent at home fixing the water supply or building a functioning economy.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s pledge to aid demonstrators if attacked is also a new wrinkle, and it may have emboldened some protesters. But that threat has so far proven hollow despite the mounting death toll, which is not entirely surprising since it is not at all clear what kind of military operation would actually aid the protesters, and since the U.S. has regional assets that could be at risk from a cornered regime that could be in its death throes.
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Notwithstanding the challenges the regime faces, it would be foolish to underestimate the repressive abilities of the Iranian security apparatus to protect the Islamic Republic. The forces stacked up against the protesters are formidable; the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in particular, is brutal and experienced, and its leadership has strong vested interests in maintaining the status quo, including vast economic holdings. They, like the protesters, have something to fight for, and they have the weapons. The regime will not be going quietly.
The regime is also bolstered by the fact that the exiled opposition movement continues to be fractious, and thus offers little hope as a viable alternative. While the son of the deposed Shah, Reza Pahlavi, has gained more visibility this time around, he carries a difficult legacy that will make it hard to rally around him, notwithstanding the effectiveness of his communications team.
It is difficult to predict how this will all turn out. Most revolutions fail, until they don’t. But it is likely that some measure of change is coming this time, even if the current revolt is put down. It is hard to see how the status quo in Iran is sustainable. It will take more than vague promises of economic reform of the sort uttered by President Masoud Pezeshkian on Sunday to placate current or future protesters. Fundamental reform will be required, beginning with policy shifts on the nuclear front and an end to regional meddling to allow for the lifting of crippling sanctions and draw the country back from the radical, revolutionary fringe.
To achieve this, there will need to be profound changes in how the regime functions, if there is not to be regime change. The question is: can Iran have the former without the latter?