Prime Minister Justin Trudeau delivers remarks during a National Caucus holiday event in Ottawa, on Dec. 17.Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press
Obviously, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wasn’t about to announce he was stepping down right after the release of Chrystia Freeland’s earthquake resignation letter on budget-update day.
That would have been a clear admission she had toppled him. Regicide on the Rideau.
Mr. Trudeau will wait a while, leaving the impression he might stay, much like President Joe Biden did after his catastrophic debate performance. But, like the U.S. President, Mr. Trudeau will realize – despite his fatuous talk of Liberals just having a family spat – that he has no choice but to vacate.
Like the President, the Prime Minister will wish that, instead of falling prey to swollen-ego syndrome, he had departed months earlier as so many advised. Both would have been praised for a show of humility. Instead, their reward is humiliation.
Mr. Biden signalled his choice to succeed him was Vice-President Kamala Harris. If Mr. Trudeau had his druthers, it would be his friend since boyhood, Dominic LeBlanc, whom he has just appointed Finance Minister.
Mr. LeBlanc, who held preparatory meetings for a leadership bid earlier this year, is intending a run to head up the Liberals. He is a leading candidate, along with global finance virtuoso Mark Carney. I was told Tuesday by one of the Carney organizers that his campaign is ready to go as soon as the leadership opening arises.
In a CTV poll last month, Mr. Carney led potential candidates with 18 per cent, followed by Ms. Freeland at 11. The other possible contenders were all below five per cent. The actual winner in the poll was “None of the Above.” Mr. None scored 26 per cent.
Despite not being a member of Parliament, Mr. Carney was offered the finance portfolio by Mr. Trudeau last week. Given the budget-day convulsions, he was wise not to accept. But some will still want to tarnish him as a co-conspirator in the backstabbing of Ms. Freeland.
Never having run for the Liberals and being inexperienced in retail politics could handicap his bid as well. But those shortcomings could also be a blessing in disguise. All the other potential leadership candidates are Trudeau cabinet members. Kamala Harris was hobbled by her having been too close to the unpopular Mr. Biden. Those who served so long under Mr. Trudeau, most notably the joined-at-the-hip Mr. LeBlanc, will face a similar disadvantage. Outsider Mr. Carney doesn’t have that problem. He is the turn-the-page candidate.
Mr. LeBlanc unveiled details of a $1.3-billion border security plan Tuesday in response to Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 25-per-cent import tariff. This could well allow Mr. Trump to say his bargaining tactic got action, declare victory and remove the tariff threat. Or at least significantly lower it.
Given all the panic the threat has caused – “He’s got us running around like a bunch of chickens,” former free-trade negotiator Gordon Ritchie told me yesterday – the LeBlanc candidacy could well benefit.
Ms. Freeland wasn’t considered a strong leadership contender, but her stock has suddenly risen with her adroit turning of the tables on Mr. Trudeau.
Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly got her profile nicely boosted in a recent big piece in The New York Times, too, touting her as a potential Trudeau successor. She and likely candidate François-Philippe Champagne both hail from Quebec. Four of the party’s last five leaders have hailed from that province. Would the Liberals opt for yet another?
Being a New Brunswick francophone, Mr. LeBlanc spans the two cultures smoothly. The son of former governor-general Romeo LeBlanc, he is the most experienced of the contenders, having been an MP for two dozen years and having served in many portfolios. He doesn’t take himself too seriously, has a sense of humour and a populist touch. The distinguished Mr. Carney, given his career in financial boardrooms, will have to fight off the elitist tag.
Since the Liberals are running 20 points behind the Conservatives, the wonder is why anyone, particularly Mr. Carney, would even want the leadership job. A stinging defeat is likely in the offing, with many years in opposition to follow.
But the winner of this race becomes prime minister, if only for a short time. And while the job of opposition leader is said to be a thankless one, you are the country’s leading critic of the government of the day, which is a position of substantial power. To be considered also is that Liberal opposition leaders more often than not become prime minister.
Given the degree of animosity Mr. Trudeau has stirred among Canadians, there’s another advantage to taking over the Liberal helm: Expectations are so low they can only be exceeded.
Let the race begin.