Ukraine's attack happened hours before a second round of peace talks in Istanbul.Sean Gallup/Getty Images
Michael Bociurkiw is a global affairs analyst and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
When previous, massive Ukrainian offensive operations struck on Russian soil – whether an assassination of a senior military official or an attempt to demolish the strategic Kerch Bridge – they’ve often stirred anxiety among Ukrainians, who have feared severe retaliation.
The brazen, simultaneous Ukrainian strikes on multiple Russian military air bases on Sunday triggered a markedly different response: widespread, almost jubilant approval. For the first time in recent memory, Ukrainians celebrated openly, viewing the attacks as a significant blow to Russia’s offensive capabilities – one that will hopefully translate into fewer sleepless nights disrupted by the sounds of exploding drones and missiles.
On Ukrainian social media, the attack sparked a fresh wave of celebratory “David vs. Goliath” memes. Many drew parallels to the viral imagery from April, 2022, when Ukraine sank the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. This time, the meme featured a Ukrainian serviceman defiantly raising his middle finger toward an airfield filled with smouldering Russian strategic bombers – a bold symbol of resistance and national pride.
Here in Odesa, which is easily within striking range of Russian missiles, a bagpiper in an Irish pub ran through a celebratory version of the Ukrainian national anthem while customers, including a Royal Navy serviceman, stood up and responded with “glory to the heroes.”
They had good reason to celebrate. According to the latest damage estimates from Kyiv, the 117 Ukrainian quadcopter drones, launched across several Russian time zones, destroyed at least 44 aircraft, or 34 per cent of Russia’s strategic bombers capable of carrying cruise missiles, worth US$7-billion. Also hit was at least one of the few remaining A-50 surveillance planes, which provide early warning and targeting information.
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Some Ukraine media outlets branded the attack as “Russia’s Pearl Harbour,” while others said that over the course of just one day, Ukraine managed to “rewrite the rules of war.” The respected Institute for the Study of War said Ukraine’s drone strike operation – reportedly 18 months in the making – may at least temporarily constrain Russia’s ability to conduct long-range drone and missile strikes into Ukraine, and that Russia will likely struggle to replace the aircraft damaged and destroyed.
Another immediate consequence of the strikes – likely coordinated with covert operatives inside Russia – is a sharp spike in President Vladimir Putin’s paranoia. His recent declaration of a unilateral ceasefire during the Victory Day celebrations, reportedly out of fear that Ukrainian fibre-optic drones might disrupt the events, speaks volumes. In a striking display of caution, he even appeared to use Chinese President Xi Jinping as a form of human shield. Let’s be clear: this was an intelligence failure of staggering proportions. Expect Mr. Putin to respond by holding someone accountable for the breach.
The timing of the attack warrants close scrutiny. It took place just hours before a second round of peace talks in Istanbul, where Ukrainian negotiators – led by Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, a Crimean Tatar – were scheduled to meet their Russian counterparts. Notably, despite the significant blow dealt by Ukraine, the Russian delegation, albeit composed of lower-ranking officials, still showed up at the table. This suggests Moscow may be seeking a temporary pause in hostilities, possibly to regroup, rebuild and rearm. The talks lasted just over an hour, but according to Turkish officials, they did not end on a negative note. Another major prisoner exchange is reportedly in the works, as well as a swap of the remains of up to 6,000 war dead from each side. The Russian delegation also submitted a list of negotiating demands, and, according to the BBC, a potential face-to-face meeting between Mr. Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is under discussion and could take place before the end of the month.
While Russia’s long-range air power has been significantly degraded, at least in the medium term, it still maintains considerable naval capabilities that pose a threat not only to Ukraine but also to neighbouring states. Russia has also expanded its capacity to deploy Kalibr cruise missiles from both submarines and ships, increasing its maritime strike potential. Meanwhile, support from allies in Tehran, Pyongyang, Beijing and beyond continues to sustain the Russian war effort, providing everything from manpower to dual-use technology and sophisticated sanction-evasion strategies.
Of course, it is a positive development that Russia has agreed to another prisoner exchange and to the continuation of talks. In the security field, these are known as confidence-building measures. But such gestures, while welcome, should not be mistaken for a change in intent. Until the costs of waging this war exceed the perceived benefits, Mr. Putin’s willingness to inflict further pain and suffering on Ukraine is unlikely to diminish.