The United States is intent on pushing through a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine that favours Moscow.Jeenah Moon/Reuters
Michael Bociurkiw is a global affairs analyst, a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and founder of World Briefing report on Substack.
The so-called “peace process” unfolding around Ukraine looks less like a diplomatic pathway to ending Europe’s bloodiest war since 1945, and more like a stage-managed exercise by Washington and Moscow – with Kyiv watching from the platform as the train pulls away.
The metaphor is painfully apt. Picture a train barrelling down the track with the United States and Russia in the driver’s cabin. President Volodymyr Zelensky is sprinting alongside, desperately trying to jump on. Meanwhile, Europe is still at the ticket booth, fumbling for loose change. This is no way to negotiate the future of an invaded sovereign state – nor the security architecture of an entire continent.
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The tragedy here is not only procedural. It is strategic. Ukraine continues fighting valiantly, absorbing daily barrages that leave towns cold, dark and wounded. Its forces remain the thin line between Russia and NATO territory. Ukrainians are essentially defending Europe, even as Europe struggles to defend itself.
Soldiers from a Ukrainian assault brigade enter a command bunker while waiting for orders to fire British-made Howitzers on Russian trenches near Bakhmut, Ukraine, March, 2023.John Moore/Getty Images Europe
Yet NATO appears unsure of its own thresholds. What level of provocation might trigger Article 5, and a collective military response? The near-constant Russian prodding – from dangerously provocative actions off British waters to the sabotage of a key Polish rail link ferrying military aid to Ukraine – seems not to meet the bar. And Vladimir Putin, a master reader of weakness, is finding plenty of soft tissue.
Compounding the dysfunction is a European Union whose institutional leadership is increasingly viewed as slow, technocratic and, at times, dangerously complacent. “It’s not talking that sends a signal – it’s doing,” Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže said this week. Indeed: words don’t stop Russian missiles the way Patriot air-defence systems do.
Meanwhile, in Washington, tantrum diplomacy has become the order of the day. Donald Trump’s White House is dealing in foreign policy without ideology, without predictability, and without guardrails. It is driven by two impulses: to reward the President’s inner circle, and to craft a narrative that could lead to a Nobel Peace Prize for Mr. Trump.
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We know from leaked communications (over an unencrypted GSM line) that American envoy Steve Witkoff coached his Russian counterpart, Kirill Dmitriev, on how to butter-up Mr. Trump. And the Russians, perfectly aware of the leverage this gives them, are more than willing to play along.
The stakes could not be higher. The leaked 28-point peace proposal revealed just how far this could go. If even a portion were implemented – territorial concessions, limits on Ukraine’s military, restrictions on NATO co-operation – it would amount to the end of Ukraine as a sovereign nation. The plan would also see full amnesty for Russian troops accused of war crimes, and re-entry for Russia into the G7 bloc of wealthy nations.
Meanwhile, Kremlin-directed efforts to erase Ukrainian identity in the roughly 20 per cent of the country under occupation are already well under way. And even if Washington amends the plan in ways meant to placate Kyiv, Moscow has made clear it will offer no concessions of its own. The Kremlin is perfectly willing to play the long game – confident that time, pressure and Western fatigue will eventually bend the outcome in its favour.
With a weakened leadership in Ukraine, U.S. officials are sensing a chance to force Volodymyr Zelensky into a peace deal.SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images
The Americans also know that Ukraine’s political leadership has been weakened. Mr. Zelensky, battered by a corruption scandal, is now facing the dual challenge of a deteriorating battlefield situation and increasing donor fatigue. American officials are sensing a chance to back Kyiv into a corner, and the Russians are more than willing to support the push.
But some of the most damaging vulnerabilities are self-inflicted. Mr. Zelensky continues to rely on his powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, to lead negotiations over the peace plan. This has troubled the many Ukrainians who view him not just as the shadow president, but also as someone with thin diplomatic credentials and questionable judgment. There are far more capable hands available, including former foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba. Ukraine cannot afford amateur hour.
Unless the negotiation process is rebalanced, Ukraine risks becoming the subject, rather than the author, of its own so-called peace. And a deal shaped primarily by Washington and Moscow risks becoming not a settlement, but a suspension – a mere pause before the next Russian incursion – especially if ironclad security guarantees are excluded.
Canada, Europe, and like-minded democracies must insist on a transparent, Ukrainian-centred process. They must make clear that no peace plan is legitimate if it rewards aggression or codifies territorial theft. And most of all, they must ensure Ukraine is not left running after a train that should never have left without it.