R. David Harden was the former assistant administrator for the Bureau of Democracy, Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance and the U.S. Agency for International Development. He is now the managing director of the Georgetown Strategy Group.
Damascus, Syria’s capital, fell to Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), a Sunni Islamic militant group in a lightning raid this weekend, abruptly closing this chapter of a 14-year civil war. By Sunday, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad had fled to Russia, ending his family’s 53-year tyrannical reign. The collapse of the Assad regime tells us more about the future of global powers and ancient empires than it does about the months ahead for the Syrian people.
The post-Second World War international order is over. Donald Trump will usher in a transactional U.S. foreign policy, not based on values or institutions but raw power. The beginning of the end of the post-Second World War era began, however, when then-president Barack Obama warned that if the Assad regime used chemical weapons against the Syrian people, the U.S. would intervene militarily. In the post-Second World War era, deploying chemical weapons against civilians violated core norms of the international order. In August, 2013, Mr. al-Assad ignored Mr. Obama’s warning and used sarin gas in the Damascus suburb of Ghouta, killing hundreds of civilians.
The red line was crossed. Mr. Obama backed down.
It is true that American domestic polls found little support for another U.S. military engagement in the Middle East. But in Tehran, Damascus, Jerusalem, and Cairo, Mr. Obama’s failure to enforce the red line signalled American weakness. Russia and Iran soon swept in to prop up the Assad regime. A Russian port and air base on the Mediterranean coast provided direct military support, while Iranian and Hezbollah fighters co-ordinated closely with the Syrian army. Syria remained a frozen conflict.
Until two weeks ago.
The rise of HTS harks back to an earlier era of history, where the destiny of great powers and old empires ruled. Since Oct. 7, 2023, the modern-day Israelites bloodied the Persians’ (now Iranians’) desire to establish a Shia crescent from Beirut, to Damascus, Baghdad and Sanaa, with its attacks both on Hezbollah in Lebanon and Ayatollah Khamenei’s military assets in Iran. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin’s imperialist designs remained bogged down in Ukraine, making him unable to rescue Mr. al-Assad’s regime.
Sensing Iranian weakness, Russian distraction, and American irrelevance, Turkey backed HTS, which had moderated its ideology, established basic governing structures, and military discipline. With a nod to the Ottoman empire and a realpolitik objective to blunt Kurdish nationalism, Turkey encouraged HTS to strike. Within days, HTS seized Aleppo, Hama, and Homs before entering Damascus unopposed.
We do not know what the future holds for Syria.
The country remains deeply splintered internally. Externally, the Iranians, Israelis, Kurds, Americans, and Russians have entrenched interests in Syria. This broken country will likely spiral further into chaos. But HTS, and its charismatic leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani, could potentially unify the besieged country.
The answers to four questions will shape Syria and the Middle East for decades.
First, will HTS constructively engage with Syrian minorities, including the Kurds, Christians, and Alawites? The Kurds, denied their own homeland, control a substantial portion of Syria. The Christian community has been decimated by the war, yet they remain an important minority with deep support. The Alawite religious sect has been loyal to the Assad regime for generations. A stable Syria requires that HTS build a coalition that embraces Syria’s diversity.
Second, will HTS and Kurdish forces reach a political accommodation? Kurdish forces, with U.S. support, control about a quarter of Syria. These seasoned fighters will have more grit than the Syrian army in a fight with HTS. Stability requires that HTS and the Kurds reach an understanding about the future.
Third, will remnants of al-Qaeda resurface to fight for an Islamic caliphate? Even though HTS and al-Qaeda broke relations in 2016, there remains a threat that extremists will re-emerge. On Sunday, the U.S. struck more than 75 ISIS targets in central Syria. The Israelis also crossed into Syria, as they seek to stop remaining stockpiles of chemical weapons from falling into the hands of bad actors.
Finally, will Syrian refugees return home? There are nearly 5 million refugees living in the region, including more than 3 million in Turkey. The refugees will give the best assessment as to whether Syria is stable enough for them to return.
When Mr. Trump returns to the White House, the post-Second World War international order will officially close. It has been a long time coming, beginning when Mr. Obama failed to enforce his red line in Syria. The future in the Middle East may well look like the past, with global powers and ancient empires competing for that road to Damascus.