While Pierre Poilievre is outwardly aghast about the Liberals' new majority mandate, he ought to be relieved, writes Robyn Urback.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
Officially, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is outraged. “The Carney Liberals did not win a majority government through a general election or today’s by-elections,” Mr. Poilievre posted on X Monday night, as the results erasing his leverage in the House of Commons rolled in. The Liberals swept all three by-elections, less than a week after they seduced the unlikeliest of floor-crossers, Marilyn Gladu, to join the Liberal caucus. “The Prime Minister spent the year on this cynical power grab,” he added.
Mr. Poilievre is indeed correct: Prime Minister Mark Carney would not have 174 seats in Parliament today had his party not seduced five opposition MPs to cross the aisle. But he is also espousing what the kids like to call “loser talk”: the sorrow of the vanquished, bitterly expressed to anyone who will generously lend an ear.
Yes, we know it’s not really fair, but that’s politics, baby. If you want to play somewhere less violently cutthroat, go join a high-powered corporate law firm or something.
Liberals secure majority government with sweep of three by-elections
But while the Conservative Leader might be outwardly aghast at the manner by which the Liberals secured their majority, he is likely experiencing some quiet relief that this threshold has finally been crossed. Because when he gets over the initial embarrassment and pain of his new, weakened position in Parliament, Mr. Poilievre may recognize that his personal political fortunes are much better served by a weak Liberal majority than a strong Liberal minority.
The greatest gift a Liberal majority affords Mr. Poilievre is time. With national polling where it is currently, and where it has been for the past several months, the Conservatives are in no position to wage a successful election campaign, which is an omnipresent threat looming over any minority government.
Mr. Poilievre will likely be given, at most, one more shot to lead the Conservatives to victory (unless Conservatives continue to make the pilgrimage across the aisle, in which case Mr. Poilievre could be forced to relinquish his hold on the leadership early). In anticipation of that last, final shot at forming government, Mr. Poilievre needs time to broaden his base of support, to continue to cultivate a new, more “prime ministerial” image and to better define his party’s priorities in contrast to the much more centrist Liberal Party governed by Mr. Carney.
Carney basks in the glow of the governing Liberals' three by-election victories during a press conference on Parliament Hill on Tuesday.David Kawai/Reuters
A Liberal majority also creates space for Mr. Carney’s numbers to fall.
The Prime Minister is still clearly in the honeymoon phase, but expectations for the government rise when it has a majority. Mr. Carney has spent his first year as Prime Minister doing a lot of talking, and promising, and handshaking. He now has three years to start delivering, unencumbered by the threat of opposition parties bringing down the government and, importantly, with control over Parliamentary committees.
Canadians will notice if, by 2029, they are still struggling to afford groceries or fill up their gas tanks, and barring some spectacular and illegal manoeuvre south of the border, U.S. President Donald Trump will no longer be around to blame. Mr. Poilievre will be in a much better position to wage a successful election campaign when Mr. Trump exits the political arena.
Opinion: Carney finally has his majority. He must not waste it
Just as importantly, this majority gives the NDP time to rebuild and redefine itself under Leader Avi Lewis without the prospect of an early election. It’s challenging for any party, but particularly one like the NDP, which may hold the balance of power, to effectively oppose a minority government while at the same time trying to avoid an election. That was the quagmire that former leader Jagmeet Singh tried to navigate, to dismal results, in the dying years of the Trudeau government.
But Mr. Carney’s new majority eliminates the issue; the NDP is now free to oppose the government and to vote against the government on any or all issues in its quest to reclaim centre-left voters (or even just left voters) from the Carney Liberals. And Mr. Poilievre needs an NDP rebound; the Conservatives have scant hope at forming government if the NDP continues to exist as a caucus you barely need two hands to count.
So yes: while Mr. Poilievre is outwardly incensed about how this majority came to be, and surely isn’t pleased about how it reflects on his leadership in the short-term, it creates the best conditions possible for him to mount his next and likely last shot at becoming Prime Minister. In a strange way, on Monday night, everyone got what they wanted. The Conservative Leader just can’t say that out loud.