John Zada is a Toronto-based writer, author and a co-founder of The Conciliators Guild, an international conflict-resolution organization.
The 53-year rule of the al-Assad family has come to an end, in what has been the final chapter in Syria’s frozen civil war. In a little over a week, and facing little resistance from the Syrian military, opposition rebels have hopscotched across the country to finally take its capital Damascus on Sunday morning. Former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a much-reviled dictator notorious for his cruel and repressive tactics, has fled to Moscow. Scenes of jubilation – of tearful exiles returning and families reunited – have erupted across the country amidst talk of “a new era.”
A coalition of armed Sunni groups have filled in the vacuum left by the retreating regime and its recently weakened and distracted backers: Iran, Hezbollah and Russia. The head of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) faction and a former al-Qaeda leader who has rebranded himself as a moderate with meticulous PR polish, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, intends to lead a transition towards a new Syrian government.
It’s early to say what this tectonic shift will ultimately mean for Syria and a convulsing Middle East. But given the country’s former geographical linchpin position as part of the “Axis of Resistance,” the implications stand to be considerable. The road ahead, comprised of both challenges and hopes, will be long and uncertain.
Internally, much will depend on whether the new conglomerate of victors will be able to share power without turning their guns on each other – much as Libyans did in the aftermath of Moammar Gadhafi’s ouster in 2011. The ability to maintain cordial relations with other Syrian ethnic groups will also be key. Mr. al-Golani, playing the part of the wizened and high-minded politician, has talked a big game of reconciliation and of protecting Syria’s minorities, including Christians, Shias, Ismailis, and Alawites. Remarkably, and true to his word so far, there have been few reports of retribution or acts of abuse against other ethnicities. Yet even if this policy endures in name, the reality is that any new Syrian government established by former or current jihadists would skew in the direction of a theocracy. Religious minorities in Syria would eventually suffer.
One of Syria’s most ethnically diverse areas, along its northeastern border areas with Turkey and Iraq, may be the first flashpoint in this regard. It is expected that Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, a long-time supporter of the resistance to Mr. al-Assad, will use his preferred Sunni faction, the Syrian National Army (SNA), to fight Syria’s main Kurdish-led militia, which he claims threatens Turkey. The Kurds, which helped neutralize ISIS with American military co-operation and protection, are especially vulnerable now that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump has said he will end U.S. military involvement in Syria.
While Turkey is slated to benefit from Mr. al-Assad’s overthrow, its regional rival Iran has suffered a massive blow to its prestige and ability to project power in the region as a result. Tehran has been a very close confidante of Syria since the early days of the Islamic Revolution and has invested billions in the country. Having already suffered a huge blow from the crippling of its proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah, and facing the prospect of a more serious Israeli military strike, Iran will have even fewer military options in the Levant. The Axis of Resistance has lost whatever remaining viability and credibility it had in the days prior.
What any of this means for Syria’s relationship with Israel is anyone’s guess. Since Israel’s creation in 1948, the two countries have been locked in a perpetual state of war. Though these recent events will help Israel further its goals in relation to Iran and Hezbollah, the emergence of an emboldened new government across the Golan Heights may cause Israel to eventually lament the loss of Mr. al-Assad. But it may also turn out that the need to rebuild Syria and the desire to end its perpetual state of war and trauma will prevent the igniting of major new conflicts.
And this is where the ray of hope that comes with any political reset is to be found. With the Iranians driven out, the Russians on their way out, and the United States now slated to leave, Syria may enjoy an interlude of greater breathing space in which to forge its new era. If its emerging leaders can mostly agree and make good on their claims of treating their people with respect, it will be a step in the right direction for the region – however imperfect the arrangement. But if the usual and much-entrenched patterns of group dominance, religious dogma, and rule through fear win the day and become the foundation of the new Syrian state, this rare moment of reckoning will be lost.