Iranians wave flags in Tehran on Wednesday after the ceasefire was announced.Majid-Asgaripour/Reuters
Dennis Horak was Canada’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Yemen from 2015-18 and chargé d’affaires in Iran from 2009-12.
Whether we want to characterize the declaration of a two-week ceasefire as another example of TACO – “Trump Always Chickens Out” – or as a case of cooler heads prevailing, there is justifiable relief that the U.S. took a step back from the brink Tuesday night.
But it remains to be seen whether this is just a temporary lull or the first steps toward a more lasting settlement of this conflict. At this point, it is not even certain the two-week timeline will hold, and differing interpretations on whether the ceasefire covers Lebanon have already threatened the agreement as Israel continues its operations there.
There is hope that the diplomatic track will yield more positive results, but we really don’t know a lot about the terms of the negotiations slated to resume in Pakistan, though Iran’s 10-point plan seems to be the basis for the resumption of talks.
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Based on what has been made public about this plan, that should be a non-starter for the U.S. It is, effectively, Tehran’s declaration of victory, and it is hard to see why the Trump administration would characterize this as a “workable basis on which to negotiate.”
It calls for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region and the lifting of all sanctions and acceptance of enrichment, which are long-standing Iranian security objectives that predate the war. Acceptance of Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz and the demand for reparations are newer elements, and they should be summarily rejected.
While American military objectives going into this war were uncertain, its overall goals have been clear for some time: notably, restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program, limits on missile development and controls on the activities of Iran’s proxies. While the war has had an impact on some of those challenges – for example, its nuclear sites have been badly damaged and its missile program and proxy forces have been severely degraded – Iran’s 10-point plan makes clear that Tehran is confident enough to set those out as key priorities.
Bridging the gaps between U.S. and Iranian priorities was a tall enough order five weeks ago. The war has added new, more challenging dimensions.
For instance, the Iranians believe they will be operating from a position of strength, despite the heavy losses they have incurred. The regime has survived, and its leverage has increased thanks to its demonstrated ability to control the Strait of Hormuz, which was always a theoretical possibility but has since proved to be a reality.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt takes questions at a briefing on Wednesday.Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
To use Donald Trump’s favourite analogy, the Iranians may not have had the cards in their dealings with the U.S. five weeks ago, but their wartime grip over the Strait has given them a very powerful one. They will use that card to the fullest, to try and extract concessions that may not have been available before, without having to make major sacrifices on other existing key priorities.
Meanwhile, the Americans go into these negotiations looking tired of it all and impatient with Iran’s resilience. Despite impressive tactical successes, the Trump administration doesn’t seem to have a coherent plan on how to get out of the mess it has created. That is no surprise. It went into the war without a clear set of criteria for victory, allowing the goalposts to move seemingly on the whims of an inconsistent President.
This ad-hoc approach to war, however, does have its advantages. It allows for an improvised exit strategy, and we may be seeing the outlines of one now. Repeated assertions that all military objectives have been achieved, as well as Mr. Trump’s farcical claim this week that the war has brought “Complete and Total Regime Change,” could be the beginning of efforts to pave the road for the U.S. to declare victory.
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The wild card going forward is Israel. While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accepted the ceasefire, he is reportedly not happy with where this is headed. Israel will likely resist efforts to have Lebanon included in any potential deal without assurances about the disarmament of Hezbollah; this has proved impossible to enforce in the past, and Iran will not want to concede on the issue.
If the two-week ceasefire does hold, it provides an opportunity for a reset. But it is not at all clear whether either side will take the appropriate lessons from the past five weeks.
The Iranians, feeling emboldened, will no doubt push the envelope; overplaying their hand is a feature of this regime. The Americans may still not understand the limits of military power. These things have not changed – and so whatever happens in the negotiations, stability in the region likely remains a long way off.