Spanish far-right VOX party leader Santiago Abascal, centre, sits with European far-right politicians during Patriots for Europe summit in Madrid, on Feb. 8. From left, Italy's vice Premier Matteo Salvini, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, far-right VOX party leader Santiago Abascal, French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and Dutch far right wing politician Geert Wilders.Paul White/The Associated Press
If it is too soon to draw conclusions about Donald Trump’s place in the annals of Western civilization, what is certain is that few world leaders have provoked as much consideration of the question in recent times as the U.S. President. But how much of his ascent is the result of a cult of personality – rather than populist political tides that were already rising before he came along – is sure to be the subject of countless future volumes on early 21st century history.
As historian Margaret MacMillan reminds us, it takes a unique combination of factors – among them personal magnetism, popular unrest, and/or fate itself – for a Hitler to threaten humanity or for a Churchill to emerge to save it.
“To accept that certain kinds of leaders can divert the course of history does not mean that they do so on their own; they ride the changing currents in societies,” writes Ms. MacMillan, the emeritus professor at the University of Toronto and Oxford University, in a recent Foreign Affairs essay. “Great political and social changes often come as institutions are losing authority because people simply stop believing in their legitimacy.”
The attack on the U.S. government agencies, multilateral organizations and political conventions that Mr. Trump is now waging is part of a broader Western trend that is also shaking the foundations of the European Union, where parties on the far-right have become kingmakers holding the balance of power, formally or informally, in many countries.
Last weekend, the leaders of 11 of the far-right parties that make up the Patriots for Europe bloc in the European Parliament gathered in Spain to celebrate Mr. Trump’s return to the White House and put establishment politicians on notice: the era of EU diktats, regulations, open borders and unbridled immigration is over. National sovereignty is the mot d’ordre.
Last June’s European elections saw far-right candidates win a record 192 seats in the 720-seat European Parliament. Patriots is the largest far-right bloc, with 86 seats. The Conservatives and Reformists group, which includes Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, holds 80 seats. The Europe of Sovereign Nations bloc, led by Alternative for Germany (AfD), has 26 seats.
“Yesterday, we were heretics. Today, we are mainstream,” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban told the crowd of about 2,000 mostly Spanish far-right sympathizers gathered in a hotel ballroom on the outskirts of Madrid. “People used to think we represented the past. Today, everyone sees that we represent the future.”
The 11 Patriots leaders, who included Marine Le Pen of France’s National Rally, Santiago Abascal of Spain’s Vox, Geert Wilders of the Dutch Freedom Party and Matteo Salvini of Italy’s League party, gathered on stage for a family photo in front of a backdrop emblazoned with the slogan Hacer Europa Grande Otra Vez, or Make Europe Great Again.
No explanation needed.
The U.S. President’s promise to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, dismantle the “deep state” led by unelected bureaucrats and put his country’s interests first echoes what European far-right leaders had been preaching long before Mr. Trump’s first election victory in 2016. His return coincides with their own rising popularity, with many poised to win power or enough seats to force those in government to adopt their policies.
The National Rally now holds the largest number of seats in France’s National Assembly, and Ms. Le Pen is the heavy favourite to win France’s 2027 presidential election. Prime Minister François Bayrou’s fragile governing coalition is now at the mercy of 125 National Rally députés.
Mr. Orban, who has held power in Hungary since 2010, may be the doyen of the Patriots club. But across the EU, far-right parties are gathering steam as voters blame pro-EU parties for their weak economies, deindustrialization and immigration policies, which they believe threaten their societies’ cultural identities and Judeo-Christian values.
Case in point, the neo-fascist AfD, recently endorsed by Trump sidekick Elon Musk, is on the cusp of a historic breakthrough in Germany’s Feb. 23 election.
At last weekend’s Patriots gathering, Mr. Wilders, whose Freedom Party holds the largest number of seats in the Dutch parliament, invoked the 15th-century expulsion of Muslims from Spain, a period known as the Reconquista (Reconquest). “You were the first to combat Islam and restore Christendom,” he told Vox’s Mr. Abascal. “We will never forget it.”
“We Spaniards like very much that we are known for this extraordinary gesture by our ancestors, for having been Europe’s wall against Islamism’s advance,” Mr. Abascal responded. “We are ready to be that again.”
Another lesson of history is that it is often circular. The return of Mr. Trump and the rise of the European far right seem to suggest that the West is getting dangerously close to proving that point once again. This time, with no Churchills in sight.